Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 252034
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
334 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE MID MISS RVR VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
CLOUDS HAVE KEPT EASTERN ZONE TEMPS IN THE 50S...WHILE MORE SUN IN
THE WEST HAS ALLOWED SOME WARMING INTO THE 60S. A DISTURBANCE AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LOW CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLE OF NEB.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS THE ROCKIES OVERNIGHT SENDING A
DISTURBANCE AHEAD AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO WESTERN NEBRASKA. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61...ALTHOUGH MIGHT SEE ENOUGH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT TO REACH HIGHWAY 83. HIGHEST CAPE /AROUND 500 J/KG/ AND NEG
LIFTED INDEX VALUES /AROUND -1/ ARE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF NEB
EARLY TONIGHT. NUMBERS ARE MARGINAL AND BECOME LESS FAVORABLE
OVERNIGHT. THUS THINK THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE RAIN
SHOWERS WITH ONLY A FEW EMBEDDED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSHOWERS EARLY ON.
AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER DWINDLES. MEANWHILE
A RICH BL ACROSS N CENTRAL NEB HAS RESULTED IN LOW STRATUS
LINGERING. EVEN WITH THE LOW SHIFTING EAST...THE MODELS TRAP THE
MOISTURE AND KEEP LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ALSO MOS
GUIDANCE AND MODELS SUPPORT SOME PATCHY FOG. LOWS TONIGHT HOLD IN
THE 40S THANKS TO THE BLANKET OF CLOUD COVER.

BY SUNDAY MORNING THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. MODELS IN AGREEMENT LIFTING A WAVE OF ENERGY NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL LIMIT HEATING...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
WEST. THE FOG/LOW STRATUS SHOULD LIFT ACROSS THE EAST...HOWEVER NOT
MUCH SUN AND HIGHS AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WRN U.S.
MOVES EAST THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS A BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CNTL PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TRAPPING MOISTURE
IN THE 850-700MB LAYER ACROSS THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS AND WRN NEB. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD THROUGH NCNTL NEB ALLOWING CLEARING TO
DEVELOP. THE MODELS SHOW EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. PERSISTENT 850-700MB UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
FORCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. THE SREF
KEEPS THE LOWEST VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS WEST OF THE FCST AREA ALONG
THE COLO FRONT AND LARAMIE RANGES. OTHERWISE FOG AND DRIZZLE WOULD
APPEAR TO BE LIKELY ACROSS WRN NEBRASKA GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE
LOCKED IN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A PLAY ON CLOUD COVER WITH THE WARMER
HIGHS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND THE WARMER LOWS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
WHERE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW WILL BUILD HIGH PRESSURE INTO TEXAS
DELAYING GULF MOISTURE RETURN UNTIL THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE MIDLEVEL WARMING WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY WARM HIGHS INTO THE
80S BY FRIDAY.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS DEWPOINTS RISING TOWARD 50F BY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE NRN PLAINS
FRIDAY EVENING. THE ECM AND GFS SUGGEST SOME SORT OF TSTM ACTIVITY
WOULD DEVELOP AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE BRIEFLY. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND
MORE ACTIVE WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY. THE FASTER ECM IS
LESS EVENTFUL SUGGESTING LATE THURSDAY FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. A
SECOND DISTURBANCE COULD AFFECT THE FCST AREA SATURDAY WITH
AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR TSTMS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE 70S AND INTO THE 80S
BY FRIDAY. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY WHICH MIGHT
DEPEND ON THE OUTCOME OF CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT. IF STORMS
DEVELOP...REMNANT CLOUDINESS COULD PARTIALLY DISRUPT THE HEATING
CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF A KLBF TO KIEN LINE. MODELS DUE LIFT THE TERMINAL
SITES TO VFR BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS LIKELY AS THEY ARE
TOWARDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD. HOWEVER GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. WITH THE MOISTURE GETTING
TRAPPED IN THE BL...EXPECT IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS FROM INITIALCIGS
THEN ADDING LOWERING VISIBILITIES FROM FOG.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE THEY MAY REACH THE
TERMINALS...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE THEY WILL MAKE IT
THIS FAR EAST IS LOW.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...MASEK






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