Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 040824
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
324 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND HAVE COME IN SLOWER WITH ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA. HAVE DELAYED ONSET AND CUT BACK
ON POPS WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING. DEW POINTS IN THE 30S. COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH INTO KANSAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE KEPT MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING UNTIL
MORE UNSTABLE AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THEN HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF ISO T MAINLY EAST. AFTER 18Z HAVE GONE THUNDERSTORMS AND
CARRIED INTO THE EVENING. BOTH NAM AND GFS HAVE THE FRONT OVER
KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LIGHTING UP WITH PRECIPITATION.
NAM HAS MUCH STRONGER MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH HIGHER POPS FROM THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. BIG PUSH OF MOISTURE
INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED. AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HIGHS
AROUND 60 TODAY LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S NORTHWEST TO THE  50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE MID TO LONG RANGE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGE
SEEN IN MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW SLOWLY DIGS SOUTHEAST AND
KICKS THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
EARLY THIS WEEK. THE SOUTHERN LOW PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD AS IT OPENS
UP AND IS ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW. DOWNSTREAM
HEIGHT RISES WILL CREATE MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG POLEWARD MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH A DEEP
TROPOSPHERIC LAYER. A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS
THE INITIAL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDER THE PRESENCE
OF DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISED THIS
SOLUTION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO BUMP
POPS INTO THE DEFINITE CATEGORY FOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BEGINNING 18Z
TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL A POSSIBILITY AS PWATS PUSH
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO.

LIKELY POPS CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME THE DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE
DESTABILIZATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN. A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PRECIP CHANCES WANE IN THE PRESENCE OF DRIER
AIR. HOWEVER AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LARGE PAC NW UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR KLBF UNTIL 00Z/5TH. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KVTN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
PREVAILING -SHRA AT KLBF 17Z-21Z. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
0VC035 BY 21Z...THEN MVFR AT OVC015 AFTER 00Z/5TH. PREVAILING
-SHRA EXPECTED AT KVTN AFTER 00Z/5TH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...ROBERG








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