Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KLBF 301755
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1255 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING...HAD A RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS...EXTENDING NWD INTO CENTRAL CANADA. WEST OF THIS
RIDGE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA SWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW STATES. EAST OF THE RIDGE...A
CLOSED LOW WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. CURRENT WV
IMAGERY HAS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
ALBERTA...SWD TO SWRN IDAHO WITH CLOUDS NOTED FROM IDAHO INTO
SASKATCHEWAN. A SECONDARY AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS AND PACIFIC
MOISTURE EXTENDED FROM SRN CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER NERN NEBRASKA...WHILE
A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
MONTANA...SWD INTO SERN COLORADO. ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WERE NOTED WITH LIGHT EASTERLY OR
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CDT...RANGED FROM 42
AT NORTH PLATTE TO 50 AT OGALLALA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MAINLY TONIGHT. FOR TODAY...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO
IDAHO...WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA...APPG
EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. DECENT LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NWRN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...A
DECENT CAP WILL HAVE TO ERODE FIRST BEFORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THIS CAP WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO ERODE BY
EARLY EVENING AS COLDER TEMPS ALOFT REACH THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH
THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP THE DAY PERIOD DRY AND INITIATE POPS
THIS EVENING. OTHER MINOR CHANGES TO THE FCST WERE TO SLOW DOWN
THE SPREAD OF PCPN FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...AS THE MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A TAD SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE
POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE WITH THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FAIRLY MEAGER WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 40S. AS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT...IT APPEARS
FAIRLY LOW ATTM...AS THE BEST INSTABILITY DOESN/T COINCIDE WITH
PEAK HEATING AND HIGHEST CAPES. HOWEVER...IF WE CAN GET
INITIATION VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...30+
KTS OF BULK SHEAR COULD PRODUCE A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION
WILL SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD SUSTAIN ITSELF WITH
DECREASING TEMPS ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF A 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET
ANCHORED ACROSS THE SWRN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT...READINGS WILL WARM WELL INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND MAY APPROACH 80 IN THE
FAR SOUTHWEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY MILD WITH READINGS IN
THE 40S TO AROUND 50 THANKS TO EXPECTED CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

FRIDAY WILL SEE THE COLD FRONT STALLING/WEAKENING ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. COULD
STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS/ISOLD T IN THE EAST...IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH MODELS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON
HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT MAKES ITS. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS IN THE
EAST/FAR SOUTH. BY FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS LIFT A WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. WAA MAYBE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY
CENTRAL/EASTERN ZONES WHERE BETTER MOISTURE EXIST.

WARM UP FOR THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB TEMPS SOARING TO AROUND 20C.
GUIDANCE HAS TEMPS INTO THE 80S...AND FORECAST FOLLOWS. EXCEPTION
WILL BE NW ZONES ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE PICTURE.
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE INCREASING MOISTURE WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY
INCREASES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEAT...AND
WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WITH HIGHS FALLING TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.
MODELS DIG A LOW INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO KEEP MOISTURE IN THE AREA. A FEW WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY IN THE WEEK...AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW...AND SEVERAL CHANCES
EXIT FOR STORMS. WITH DEW PTS INCREASING TO AROUND 50...AND GOOD
SHEAR DEVELOPING. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SEVERE STORMS AND WILL BE
MONITORING THIS CLOSELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM KVTN TO KOGA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW TSTMS. THE ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY LAST INTO TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED AND WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN ANY AREA TAFS. SOUTH WINDS AT
15 TO 25 KTS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE AND
TURN EAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.