Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 161734
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1234 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AT 08Z...THE MAIN AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NEW MEXICO
WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO WRN NEBR AND
CNTRL SD. SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTH FROM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE THROUGH HOLDREGE NORTH TO NEAR
BURWELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN H5 CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST JUST TO ITS SOUTH BY 00Z THIS EVENING
THEN SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO ALONG THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BECOME VERY
FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE FA BY TONIGHT.
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS H85 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS POINT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO WRN NEBR AND
THE FRONT RANGE OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO
0.75 INCH ACROSS THE NWRN FA TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AND INCH ACROSS
THE SERN FA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH INDICATE PWAT
VALUES OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN MANY AREAS.

FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN SHOWER COVERAGE THIS
MORNING...THEN INCREASING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM AFTERNOON
HEATING AND INSTABILITY. A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN NEW
MEXICO WILL BE DRAWN NORTHEAST INTO WRN KS BY 18Z AND SWRN NEBR
BY 21Z. POPS THIS MORNING FROM 30 TO 50 PERCENT WILL INCREASE TO
50 TO 60 PERCENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS WRN KS THIS
AFTERNOON...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN BUT
STILL BRING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY PEA SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS INTO CHASE...HAYES...AND FRONTIER COUNTY. WENT NEAR TO
SIGHTLY BELOW THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WITH MID TO UPPER
50S WEST TO NEAR 65 NORTHEAST.

FOR TONIGHT...A COUPLED H3 JET AND EASTERLY H85 WINDS
STRENGTHENING TO 25 TO 35KTS WILL AID IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH THE H7
LOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING EAST ALONG THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION AS
THE H85 FRONT REMAINS POSITIONED FROM EAST CENTRAL CO TO ALONG
THE KS/NEBR BORDER. NEARLY CONTINUOUS REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AT
AROUND 15 MPH OVERNIGHT. FORECAST QPFS FOR TONIGHT FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE FROM THREE QUARTER OF AN INCH TO NEAR AN INCH
GENERALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF HWY 2 TO TWO TENTHS TO AROUND A HALF
INCH TO THE NORTH. RESULTING POPS NEAR 80 PERCENT NEAR AND SOUTH
OF HWY 2.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

MODELS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH STILL WOULD PREFER
EVEN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
COLORADO AND KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONE THING REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THE DIFFERENT MODELS ARE WET WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
WILL LIFT NE ACROSS CO THEN STALL/MINOR LOOP BEFORE PUSHING
ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WHEN THE LOW IS ACROSS CO...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS. PWATS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEB SHOULD REACH TO AROUND 1 INCH...WITH 0.75 TO 0.90
INCHES ACROSS THE WEST WHICH IS NEARING THE MAX FOR MID APRIL FOR
KLBF. NEG LIFTED INDEXES AND SOME SMALL POS MUCAPE SHOULD RESULT
IN PRIMARILY SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS
IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE LOW OVER CO...WHICH ALLOWS A LARGE DRY
SLOT TO GET PULL IN FROM THE DESERT SW FOR SATURDAY. THE OTHER
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF A DRY SLOT...BUT NOT TO THE
EXTENT THE GFS IS. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...THE ACTIVITY WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO S DAKOTA BY SAT MORNING WITH MUCH OF THE DAY SAT
DRY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SW ZONES. AT THIS TIME EXPECT SOME
DRYING ACROSS SW NEB AND LOWER POPS.

THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS KS.
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LOW...WHICH BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE BACK TO SW NEB. A FURTHER
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN KS MAY PUSH THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE THE DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE KEY TO TEMPS ON
SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...WITH MORE CLOUDS LIMITING THE DIURNAL SWING.
EXPECT POCKETS OF SUN AND STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR...HIGHS SHOULD
PUSH INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY 70 FOR THE EASTERN ZONES ON SAT.
BY SAT NIGHT MORE CLOUDS AND TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID
40S EAST. NO MENTION OF SNOW AS 850 MB TEMPS IN POSITIVE
TERRITORY AND SFC LOWS ONLY FALLING TO THE UPPER 30S AT THE
COOLEST.

SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH PRECIP
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. THE DRY AIR AND LIGHT
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH RESULTS IN LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE LOWER 30S MAYBE A FEW UPPER 20S. STILL CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL
FOR TEMPS THIS COLD.

NEXT WEEK A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM LOW WILL ROTATE NEAR/NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WITH NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE HIGH
PLAINS. A FEW DISTURBANCES/CLIPPERS SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF
CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH UNSURE IF SFC MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPS
MORE SEASONAL FOR APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE FORECAST
PRECIPITATION AND ANY POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT IS
LOW...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL RELUCTANTLY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
FOR STRONG MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SANDHILLS REGION. ALL
FORECAST MODELS DEPICT SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING NORTH
FROM THE LOW...EFFECTIVELY INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS OUR SOUTH AROUND THE 00-03Z TIME PERIOD.
BEFORE THEN...LIGHT SHOWERS...DRIZZLE...OR A POSSIBLE WEAK
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL EXPAND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. NOTE...THERE MAY BE PERIOD OF IFR /OR LOWER/
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED...AND UNFORTUNATELY THESE UPDATES MAY BE
SHORT NOTICE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JACOBS









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