Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 162322
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
622 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER 4 CORNERS TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD
OVER NORTHERN COLORADO...TEXAS PANHANDLE...CENTRAL KANSAS AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WEAK RIDGING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND
RIDGE ALONG PACIFIC COAST. ZONAL PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...H5 LOW HAS MADE LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS
TODAY...STILL CENTERED WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS PROG THE LOW TO CONTINUE TO WOBBLE EAST CENTERED ALONG
THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER OVER THE NEXT 24-36HRS...THEN SLOWLY
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ARE SHOWN TO LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING FOR A PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WITH ORIGINS FROM THE GULF COAST WILL PROVIDE FOR
AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN.  PWATS RISE TO VALUES OF WELL ABOVE 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEAR CONTINUOUS REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS IN AREAS.
DID INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE CWA AT SOME POINT IN DEF...OR AT LEAST LIKELY COVERAGE.

A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS EVENING AS
THERE HAS BEEN A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST SKIES TO HELP
DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT.  MUCAPES ARE SHOWN  IN THE RANGE OF
200-500 J/KG ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.  IF STORMS FORM...THEY
WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL OR A
FEW GUSTS.  SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW SLOWLY ADVANCES EAST.  THE MODELS
ARE KEYING IN ON SOME DRYING LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.  AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES ACROSS OUR
SOUTH...INCREASING SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SEVERE STORMS IN OUR
FORECAST AREA.  LARGE HAIL AND WIND ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...IF THE
NAM IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR TO
PROMOTE 1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE.  NOTE...THE TORNADIC THREAT IS NON-ZERO
ACROSS SW NEB TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COLD CORE SET-UP...BUT
AT THIS TIME THE BETTER CHANCES ARE SOUTH AND WEST...WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID TERM BUT
HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN EXTENDED PORTIONS...WITH GFS WARMER AND
ECMWF MUCH COOLER. EXTENDED PROCEDURE FAVORING MIDDLE OF ROAD
SOLUTION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S AND MOIST ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST ZONES. THROUGH THE MID TERM GULF CONTINUES OPEN WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL
PLAINS. UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY...BAROCLINIC WITH DIFFLUENCE  ALOFT NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SURFACE LOW ALONG THE KANSAS COLORADO BORDER
WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS FROM THE
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LIFTING NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS. WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BECOMES DOMINANT FEATURE LEAVING NORTHERN
PLAINS IN COOL NORTH FLOW AND FAST NORTHWEST FLOW FROM SOUTHEAST
WYOMING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION OF THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL CONTINUE SENDING STORM SYSTEMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH EACH SYSTEM...WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE NEXT BOUT IS EXPECTED
LATE THIS EVENING IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AFTER 06Z. CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 1000 FEET
AGL ARE LIKELY WITH VISIBILITY TO ABOUT 3SM.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER





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