Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 202054
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
354 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH SURFACE LOW OVER GREAT
LAKES WITH COLD FRONT THROUGH OHIO VALLEY INTO GULF OF MEXICO AND
WARM FRONT THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA. CLOSED LOW UNDER RIDGE OFF THE
WEST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS SLACKENED THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXPECTING LIGHTER WINDS
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. AIR IS ALSO DRIER...SO MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS
WILL FALL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING BY TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE DRY
AIR AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME LOW TO MID 20S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
IN NORMAL COLDER SPOTS.

A COLD FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP GIVE A BOOST TO
TEMPERATURES...AND HAVE RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE
60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MID TERM MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN GFS
HAVING SOME TIMING AND COLD AIR INTRUSION PROBLEMS. ECMWF AND NAM
VERY SIMILAR IN SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THEIR SOLUTIONS. FOR EXTENDED SOLUTION WILL USE A
BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS. COLD NIGHT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 FOR MOST OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA WITH CLEARING SKIES CAA ADVECTION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN HALF OF ZONES ON WEDNESDAY WITH FAST NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND SURFACE TROUGH BUILDING IN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND
WINDS TO THE WEST SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH...60S WEST AND 50S EAST.
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY HAVE INCLUDED SHOWERS AND ISO TRW INTO SANDHILLS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH DEFORMATION
ZONE ALOFT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AS UPPER LOW OVER BAJA SENDS
ENERGY TROUGH WEAK RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MID TO
UPPER 40 DEW POINTS OVER SOUTHWEST ZONES ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
INCREASED POPS TO 50 PERCENT. STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MAIN
EMPHASIS ALONG SOUTHERN BORDER OF NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
OUT OF THE 4 CORNERS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

STRATOCUMULUS HAS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED TODAY DUE TO COLD AIR
ALOFT. THE BASE OF THIS CLOUD DECK IS NEAR 8000 FT AGL...AND WILL
NOT HAMPER ANY AIRPORT OPERATIONS AS CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR. WINDS
WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING
OVER 30 KTS INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME
LIGHT WEST TONIGHT.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...TAYLOR





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