Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 170500
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1100 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

HAVE REDUCED POPS FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND MUCH OF FRIDAY FOR ALL
AREAS EXCEPT FAR SRN SD. THE LATEST 00Z NAM AND OTHER SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUE THE TREND FROM THE 18Z GUIDANCE OF KEEPING THE
MAJORITY OF RAIN TO OUR SOUTH INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO
LOWERED CLOUD COVER TO FOLLOW SUIT. REST OF FCST LARGELY
UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...PRODUCING
SOME RAIN ACROSS CO/WY/NE. CWA IS FREE OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS
TIME...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH IS
PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE AROUND
20 KTS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE 50S AND LOWER
60S.

UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. KEPT CHANCES OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...BUT BEST FRONTOGENESIS STAYS SOUTH
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S...WARMEST
ACROSS THE CLOUDIER SOUTH.

THE DEFORMATION ZONE AND JET STREAK WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW TRANSITIONS NORTHEASTWARD. PRECIP
IS LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...BUT A SHARP CUTOFF IS EXPECTED
AND SO NORTHWESTERN SD MAY NOT SEE ANYTHING UNTIL SATURDAY. HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S FRIDAY WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE PRECIP AS
RAIN...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HILLS FRIDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS COOL NEAR FREEZING. AREAS FARTHER
EAST SHOULD STAY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN RAINY. A STRONG
BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SETS UP OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH 0.50 TO 0.75 INCH OF RAIN
POSSIBLE THERE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE CURRENT DROUGHT AND
THE WAY MODELS HAVE HANDLED THE LAST TWO SYSTEMS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF MUCH LESS RAIN WAS RECEIVED.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

UPPER LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL CO WILL SPIN NORTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL NE SUNDAY...AND THEN BE WHISKED AWAY BY NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SYSTEM WILL MOVE
QUICKLY INTO THE MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEFORMATION ZONE
PRECIPITATION WILL WRAP AROUND THE UPPER LOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR MUCH
NEEDED PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR WHEREVER THE
BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE LINES UP OVER 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS WAVERING SOMEWHAT ON HOW MUCH PHASING WILL OCCUR
WITH TWO SYSTEMS. WILL PLAY IT DOWN THE MIDDLE FOR NOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT IT WILL TAKE SUSTAINED MODERATE PRECIPITATION FOR THAT
TO OCCUR. TSRA POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

COOL/SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS ACROSS FAR SRN SD WHERE RAIN MAY BRING MVFR CIGS ON FRIDAY.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...JOHNSON


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