Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KUNR 252303
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
503 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
WY...WITH COLD FRONT BACK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WY...AND WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD
AND WESTERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN IL...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY AND
SOUTHWEST SD. A COUPLE OF CELLS LOOK LIKE THEY COULD BE PRODUCING
SOME SMALL HAIL. OTHER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHEAST
SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS AS WELL. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SD TO AROUND 60 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SD
AND NORTHEAST WY.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH SOME RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK OF
MAIN PCPN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF WEST COAST
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
ONE DISTURBANCE IS ACROSS EASTERN WY NOW...WITH ANOTHER ONE ACROSS
SOUTHERN UT. THE BEST CHANCES AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST CALLS FOR
GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF CLOSE TO A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED WHERE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP THROUGH
THE EVENING.

FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND MUCH OF WESTERN SD. THE HEAVIER PCPN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY LIGHTER SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS...80+ PERCENT...OVER THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
EVEN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS REMAINING AS RAIN
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...SO WILL NOT HAVE ANY MIX IN THE
FORECAST. WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.

AS DEVELOPING LOW WITHIN THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL STILL ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AS NARROWING RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE
SHORTWAVE OVER UTAH SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. RAISED POPS TO 80+ FOR THESE AREAS.
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IS RATHER LOW ON SUNDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND
THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL SD...WHERE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS
INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER MONDAY AS NRN STREAM TROF AXIS
CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS EARLY TO MID WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND LEAD TO
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS.
TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL PUSH WELL THROUGH THE 70S...AND
INTO THE 80S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 502 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR/LIFR STRATUS OVER MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH PCPN BECOMING MORE WDSPRD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED NEAR HEAVIER PCPN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.