Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261820
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
220 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL OFF THE NC
COAST. WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO/MANITOBA
CANADA...WEAK SFC RIDGING DOES EXTEND INTO THE NRN MID ATLC
REGION. RADAR REVEALING JUST SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACRS
SRN VA/NE NC. SKIES HAVE ACTUALLY CLEARED ACRS THE MD ERN
SHORE...AND A FEW BREAKS ARE PUSHING INTO PORTIONS OF ERN VA AS
WELL. STILL AMPLE MOISTURE FROM ABOUT 850-750 MB PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND WITH A SFC TO 850 MB MEAN FLOW FROM THE NNE...ANTICIPATE
SKIES REMAINING CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTN FOR
MOST OF THE CWA DESPITE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN.
DID GO A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC/PARTLY SUNNY FOR SKY COVER FOR NE
ZONES/THE ERN SHORE/NRN NECK...GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTH BY LATE
AFTN. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS IN FAR SRN VA/NE NC THROUGH 18Z.
HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM AROUND 60 F ACRS THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE
MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE...WELL BELOW AVG BUT NOT AS COOL AS
YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY SLIGHT CHC FOR LEFTOVER RAIN TO END ACRS NE NC EARLY THIS
EVE. VARIABLY CLOUDY/PARTLY CLOUDY TNGT OVR THE FA...POTENTIAL FOR
FOG DEPENDING ON AMT AND TIMING OF CLEARING...WILL ADDRESS THIS
WITH AFTN FORECAST PACKAGE. BROAD UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDING FM
CANADIAN MARITIMES TO SE LAKES WILL RMN IN PLACE THROUGH MON. S/W
DIVING SE THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES ON MON BRINGS VRB CLDS AND LO
POPS - ESP N AND E LOCATIONS (ALG W/ CONTD COOL CONDS). LO TEMPS
SUN NGT IN THE L/M40S. HI TEMPS MON IN THE L60S NE TO THE M60S
ELSW. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR MON NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUE
W/ INCREASED AMTS OF SUNSHINE...HIGHS MNLY INTO THE M/U60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR DRY WX THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THEN...A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST (WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF) BRINGS LOW PRESSURE
UP THE SE COAST LATE WED/WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE
OBX ON THURSDAY BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY
NIGHT. BASED ON THIS SOLUTION...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%)
INTO SOUTHERN AREAS WED...THEN SLIGHT CHC POPS NORTH AND CHC POPS
(30-40%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS (30-50%)
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA ON THURSDAY (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE DWINDLING
RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
DRY WX THEN RETURNS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S WED/THU...EXCEPT UPR 50S IMMEDIATE COAST EASTERN SHORE. HIGHS
THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID 70S INLAND BY
NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...THE MAIN CLOUD BAND HAS PUSHED SOUTH INTO SRN VA/NC. BKN
STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED N OF THE BAND. N WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE
FORECAST WITH HIGHER WINDS AT ECG.

THE SKY SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AROUND SUNSET. WITH WINDS
BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT DURING THE EVENING...CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY
FOG. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS TOWARD SUNRISE WOULD LIMIT
FOG. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST FOG EXCEPT AT ECG. CONFIDENCE
WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. THERE IS A SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS AT
SBY MONDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND MAY PRODUCE PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS. IFR CONDS
ARE PSBL. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
1 PM UPDATE...SCA NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY OR CURRITUCK
SOUND...CONTINUES MAINLY FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS S OF CAPE
CHARLES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE NC CST EARLY THIS MORNG...WHILE
ANOTHER LO WAS MOVNG INTO WNW NC. NNE WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WILL OCCUR
OVR MOST OF THE WTRS DURING TODAY...AS THE SECOND LO DROPS SSE
INTO SC WHILE THE INITIAL LO MOVES FARTHER OFF THE MID ATLC CST.
MAINTAINED SCA`S OVR THE SRN TWO CHES BAY ZNS...THE CURRITUCK
SND...AND THE SRN TWO CSTL ZNS UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTN...THRU THIS
EVENG...OR THRU LATE TNGT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS. WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS TNGT...BEFORE
POSSIBLY RAMPING BACK UP AGAIN MON INTO TUE AFTN...DUE TO LO PRES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG/LSA


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