Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 210531
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1231 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW NARROW BAND OF REFLECTIVITY
PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW MUCH SNOW WOULD ACTUALLY
BE HITTING THE GROUND GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME LOWER POPS WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN CLIMBING OVER THE NORTH AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. ONLY OTHER ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN TO INCREASE
CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE LOWER CLOUD COVER IS TRYING TO WRAP INTO THE AREA
BEHIND LOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

ALL HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXPIRED OR CANCELLED. THE REMAINING
PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT IS THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RADARS ARE SHOWING A BAND OF
REFLECTIVITIES FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTH OF REGINA
SASKATCHEWAN. SURFACE OBS ARE RATHER SPARSE IN CANADA BUT NOTHING
SHOWING UP YET REACHING THE GROUND. WONDERING HOW THIS WILL HOLD
TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO MUCH DRIER AIR SITUATED OVER NORTH
DAKOTA. MESOSCALE MODELS AND NEW NAM ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION HOWEVER...VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
BASICALLY BETWEEN WILLISTON AND MINOT...SOUTH TO JUST WEST OF
BISMARCK. UTILIZED A BLEND OF PREVIOUS POPS WITH THE NAM/RAP/HRRR
FOR PLACEMENT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL IN
THIS NARROW BAND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 910 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ALLOW WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. WILL TAKE A QUICK
LOOK AT 9 PM OBS SHORTLY TO EVALUATE RED FLAG WARNING...BUT EXPECT
WE WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL BEFORE 10 PM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO UPDATES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM. WINDS WERE STILL GUSTING
TO OVER 40 MPH IN MANY LOCATIONS AT 6 PM...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. RED FLAG WARNING ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM. IF WINDS DIMINISH AS PLANNED MAY BE
ABLE TO CANCEL BOTH A 9 PM...IF NOT A LITTLE BEFORE.

A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW AS IT DROPS
THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE ARE SOME LIGHT RETURNS
NOTED ON CANADIAN RADARS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS HIGHLIGHTED BY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

OTHERWISE...FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CUMULUS FIELDS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE DRY AXIS FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ARE EXPECTED TO FADE WITH SUNSET. THEREAFTER...A WEAK
IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
PROPAGATE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE 12
UTC AND INCOMING 18 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO RESULT FROM
NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FALLING AS LIGHT
SNOW. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE LONG TERM APPEARS RATHER COOL AND QUIET.

THROUGH MIDWEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER COOL AND DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE LOW
50S DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

BY THURSDAY MODELS ARE DEPICTING A BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
RETURN FLOW BEGINNING. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE LONG TERM MODELS ENTERING THIS WEEKEND. IT DOES APPEAR THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
TIMING...LOCATION AND AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

LCL MVFR CIGS WITH SOME -SN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS







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