Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 051038
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
638 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND BE OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WV LOOP SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING AND THIS FEATURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MORNING SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS REMAINING OFFSHORE. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS AND DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS IN PLACE
FOR ANOTHER DAY. BOUNDARY LAYERS TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR TO
MONDAY AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON TO AVERAGE 1 TO 2
DEGREES HIGHER THAN MONDAY. HAVE STAYED NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE
GUIDANCE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 80S. BY
TONIGHT...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS.
GUIDANCE NUMBERS NEARLY IDENTICAL AND CONTINUED TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL DOMINATING THE WEATHER. MODEL
TIME SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEARLY THE SAME WITH
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST MOVES NORTHWARD. FORECAST
CHALLENGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST. THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE COMING MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH A MORE
WESTERLY POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS...CONFIDENCE LEVELS REMAIN LOW ON EXACT TRACK AND TIMING. DUE
TO THIS HAVE KEPT CURRENT POPS TRENDS WITH POPS NO HIGHER THAN
CHANCE FOR SHRA/ISO THUNDER THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS
LOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF BRINGING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR FOG STILL COULD AFFECT AGS/OGB THRU 13Z. OTHERWISE HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
HOLD LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND AD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING 5 TO 10 KNOTS
FROM MID-MORNING INTO LATE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE WIND GUSTS TO 18
KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE CROSSES THE TAF SITES.
EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUD BASES 5KFT TO 7KFT.

MVFR/IFR CIGS INDICATED BY THE NAM MODEL AS ONSHORE FLOW ALLOW
STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
OGB/AGS/DNL. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THIS SYSTEM HAS YET TO DEVELOP.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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