Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCAR 060005
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT FROM CANADA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
8 PM UPDATE...
SECONDARY CDFNT IS SPREADING VIRGA SHOWERS ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE
THIS EVNG. DWPT DEPRESSIONS RANGE FM 20-25 DEGREES UNDER
EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS BUT WL CONTINUE CHC SHOWERS THIS EVNG ACRS
FAR NORTH AS THERE WERE A FEW DROPS ON WINDOWS EARLIER. ONLY OTHER
CHG WAS TO TWEAK HRLY T/TD VALUES AND WINDS. HV ALLOWED RED FLAG
WARNING TO EXPIRE ON TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

THE MAIN FOCUS AS HAS BEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
FIRE DANGER.

A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE FROM CANADA THIS EVENING W/SOME
SHOWERS. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BEST SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE NORTH OF THE MILLINOCKET-HOULTON
REGION. LAPSE RATES IN THE 850-500MB LAYER PROGGED TO HIT 7.0 C/KM
THROUGH ABOUT 8 PM IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. SB CAPE TO BE <
100 JOULES W/LIS ABOVE 0. 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40 KTS. DECIDED TO ADD
SOME WIND GUST POTENTIAL TO 35 MPH W/THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. SHOWERS
WILL FALL APART AS THE FRONT DROP SE TONIGHT AND FORCING WEAKENS.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WINDS TO DROP OFF
BELOW 10 MPH ESPECIALLY FROM HOULTON ON SOUTH. AIRMASS BEHIND THIS
FRONT IS COOLER AND DRIER. THEREFORE, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK TO AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL READINGS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

DECENT JET MAX OF 50 KTS FROM 850 TO 700 MBS SHOWING UP ON THE
12Z UA IS SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND LLVL LAPSE RATES(0-3 KM) OF 8.0 C/KM AND THE JET MAX
WILL BE ENOUGH TO GET MIXING POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOMENTUM TRANSFER OFF THE BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW GUST
POTENTIAL OF 30+ MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURESAREA
FORECAST TO BE NEAR AOA NORMAL. ALL THIS LEADING TO VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER ONCE AGAIN. MORE ON THIS IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BRING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE WILL
DIVIDE DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH FROM WARMER AIR TO
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO CENTRAL AREAS WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY OVER THE NORTH AND SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH
CENTRAL CANADA ON FRIDAY WILL PULL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT. HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE A BIT IN SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. THE
NORTH WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THE WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID
AIR PUSHES NORTH AND SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LOW FROM CANADA WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY PULLING
INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST AIR ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY WITH SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW TRACKS EAST AND PULLS A COLD FRONT THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE
MAY BRING SOME CLEARING OVER THE SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LINGERING WITH THE FRONT DOWNEAST. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN BE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE REGION ON
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NEXT 24 HOUR W/GUSTY WNW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
APPROACHING 30 KTS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY,
BUT MAY LOWER TO MVFR OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH LATE AT NIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS IN LOWER CLOUDS ARE THEN LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY BUT
MAY BE MVFR DOWNEAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO SCA EXPECTED. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE W/SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS DOWN BELOW 4 FT.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SCA IN GUSTS OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE, A LIGHT GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THROUGH LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES. WNW WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH W/GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. COLLABORATED W/GYX AND THE MAIN FOREST SERVICE ON THIS
POTENTIAL. THEREFORE, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE UP FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.

THE WINDS AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH SUNSHINE WILL CAUSE
HIGH FIRE DANGERS INTO THURSDAY. HUMID AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HEWITT/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/HEWITT/BLOOMER FIRE
WEATHER...BLOOMER


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.