Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 181357
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
957 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY PULLING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO INCREASES ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TO EAST. THIS FLOW OFF
OF LAKE ERIE WILL COOL THE LAKESHORE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL LIKELY DIP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS OF NORTHWEST PA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE
UNDER 15 MPH KEEPING THE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TODAY. UPSTREAM CIRRUS HAS BEEN DISSIPATING WITHIN THE
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BUT SHOULD INCREASE TODAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. EXPECTING THE CIRRUS TO BE THIN UNTIL MID AFTERNOON SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST FOR TODAY. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES PUSHING A WEAK FRONT INTO NORTHERN OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OFF THE
LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES IN
THE NORTH AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE WITH HIGHS
OCCURRING TOWARDS MIDDAY AND THEN FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
INLAND HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
00Z MODEL SUITE INITIALIZED WITH A 100 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING
NORTHEAST OUT OF MEXICO INTO EASTERN TEXAS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE LEADING JET AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT WILL REACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR FAIRLY LOW ON SUNDAY UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY EVENING. BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND THE APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A BRISK EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE TOWARDS TOLEDO WHICH
WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE MID OR UPPER 50S. MID-LEVEL DRY-
SLOT QUICKLY SPREADS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT SO EXPECTING TO SEE A
BREAK IN THE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW...DEEPENING THE SYSTEM TO 987MB OVER NORTHERN INDIANA BY 00Z
MONDAY. THIS IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS BETTER CONSENSUS
OF GFS/ECMWF...BUT WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
LOW.

SECONDARY TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT CLEARING OUR EASTERN AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH IS A TOUCH ON THE EARLY SIDE FOR MUCH INSTABILITY
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO WHICH WOULD BE WHERE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
BROUGHT THE MARGINAL THREAT INTO OUR EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES ON
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SHEER AND DYNAMIC NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TIMING OF FRONT...BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM UPPER 60S EAST TO LOW 60S WEST.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL DROP BACK ANOTHER 10 DEGREES INTO THE
50S. DESPITE THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS STILL NOT CLEAR AS THE MODELS
DIVERGE. ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WESTERLY FLOW AND THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ALMOST 10C SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY
BE OCCURRING MAINLY EAST OF CLEVELAND. WEDNESDAY NIGHT ADDED SOME
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MIX AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE AND 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS GETS LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW EVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA. .THE
GFS MODEL DEVELOPS A WAVE ON THE FRONT AND SPREAD RAIN INTO MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS DO
NOT DO THIS...SO WILL LEAN THAT DIRECTION.

THE MODELS AGREE A RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
BY LATE FRIDAY SPREADS RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF STRONG LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME CLEARER
WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL SCHEME FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY
1330Z OR 930 AM.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FEET WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. OTHERWISE SOME CIRRUS. DURING THE AFTERNOON
THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY OVER NW OHIO WITH A
FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE CIRRUS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A LITTLE
OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR AT TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BEGIN SUNDAY ON LAKE ERIE AND LAST INTO MID
WEEK.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE AFTER DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING AND THEN A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. AS THIS HAPPENS THE
FLOW ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME NORTHEAST. THE WINDS MAY INCREASE
ENOUGH THAT WE COULD BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
MAINLY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE MAINLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEAST AND THE WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE WINDS MAY MEET THE CRITERIA FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. LATE MONDAY THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED IN THE MODERATE COLD ADVECTION. THE THREAT
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THE GRADIENT WILL START TO
DECREASE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WEAKENS AND A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE PRAIRIE
PROVINCES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.