Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 280010
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
710 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT KEEPING PRECIP
CHANCES ALIVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA MENTIONED ABOVE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
PUSHES FURTHER EAST. HOWEVER, DRIER CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS OF EASTERN MONTANA HELPS USHER DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AS A
PREVAILING NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, LINGERING
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING MUCH BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 30S(F) TONIGHT. THE LOWER TO
MID 40S(F) ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. PATCHY FROST
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
THE COLDEST LOWS ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL AIR MASS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO MODIFY MUCH GOING INTO TUESDAY, DECREASING CLOUD
COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A LITTLE OVER THIS
AFTERNOON`S HIGHS. SO, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 60S(F)
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 70F POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS SEEING
MORE SUNSHINE, ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH NEAR I-70.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY
MID WEEK. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS, WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE LEE TROUGHING, A RETURN TO SOUTH
WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE CLOSED
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOIST RETURN FLOW. BY
THE WEEKEND, SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS
NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS. MEANWHILE, A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PUSH WEAK COLD FRONTS SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA. THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BY LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND BETTER CHANCES BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS, LOW
DEWPOINTS AND COOL READINGS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO RECOVER INTO THE LOWER
70S BY AFTERNOON. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LEE
TROUGHING PERSISTS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S AND 80S AND LOWS RISING INTO THE 50S

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 706 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

WINDS WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS
AS DIURNAL MIXING CEASES. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD CAN
BE EXPECTED, BUT CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. AS MIXING INCREASES BY MID-MORNING
TUESDAY, WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 14 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST AS REMAIN IN THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
CIRCULATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  36  66  39  72 /  10   0  10   0
GCK  34  66  37  74 /   0   0  10   0
EHA  34  63  37  74 /  30   0   0   0
LBL  35  65  37  73 /  70   0   0   0
HYS  40  68  41  72 /   0   0  10   0
P28  44  66  42  72 /  40   0  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 10 AM CDT /9 AM
MDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ043-061>063-074>077-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...UMSCHEID


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