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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 070833
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
233 AM MDT THU MAY 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL MAKE
FOR DRY WEATHER AND BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOONS WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. SATURDAY A PACIFIC LOW-PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND INCREASES WINDS FOR THE REGION AS
A COOL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE WEST. ALL AREAS WILL SEE
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE GILA. SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK PROVIDES OUR NEXT POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS AS MOISTURE TRIES TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN HAS SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. THIS PLACES OUR REGION UNDER A DRY REGIME THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS POTENTIAL STORMS OVER THE GILA ON
SATURDAY WITH A PASSING STORM SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. DAILY MIXING
EACH DAY WILL PULL DOWN MODERATELY STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND
PERSISTENT LEE SURFACE TROUGHING WILL MAKE FOR BREEZY TO WINDY
AFTERNOONS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUD-FREE. WEATHER WILL BE
BENIGN AND NIL.

SATURDAY THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST OFF
THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. MODEL TRACKS KEEP
THE SYSTEM WELL NORTH AND BARELY BRUSH OUR NW GILA ZONES WITH PCPN
POTENTIAL. THE CONSEQUENCES ARE TO KEEP MORE OF OUR FORECAST AREA
DRY WITH GUSTY AND WINDY CONDITIONS. IT APPEARS THAT ONLY THE GILA
REGION WILL SEE ANY POTENTIAL FOR PCPN/TSTMS AS IT PASSES SAT
AFTERNOON. THUS POPS ONLY FOR THE GILA ZONES...ALL OTHER ZONE WILL
HAVE NO MENTION OF ANY PCPN. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH IN
FROM THE WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL HELP PULL THE WINDS UP AND
CUT THE HEATING A BIT. LATEST MODELS ARE A BIT WARMER WITH
SATURDAY MAX TEMPS. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD THE LOWLANDS COOLED TO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S...BUT NOW THEY ARE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY BENIGN WEATHER WILL DOMINATE AS A MINOR
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE REGION WILL SEE
LIGHTER WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING MORE
EACH DAY. PLENTY OF SUN WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE.

LASTLY...WE FOCUS ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN WE SEE THE NEXT
POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK IN WITH A DRYLINE PRESSING IN
FROM THE EAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT ON THE WESTWARD
EXTENT AND THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE PUSH INTO AND ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA...AND THEY ARE STILL WAFFLING...BUT THE CURRENT
SUITE OF MODELS IS A BIT MORE BULLISH ON THE INCREASED MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW WE HAVE POPS IN ALL ZONES EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. ZONES TO THE WEST ARE DRY FOR NOW. WE`LL BE WATCHING FOR
SEVERE AND FLOOD POTENTIAL LATE WEEK WITH THIS SCENARIO AS
MOISTURE IS PROGED TO BE QUITE DEEP AND COPIOUS WITH INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 07/12Z-08/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THRU PRD. SKIES SKC-FEW150. WIND
BECOMING 230/12G22KTS AFT 18Z. OCNL LGT/MDT TURBC OVR/NR MTNS BLO
15K MSL THRU PD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...POTENTIAL NEED FOR RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...

DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. RH WILL
FALL EACH AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL INCREASE. ON SATURDAY A PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND BRING A FEW CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORMS TO THE GILA REGION. UNTIL
THEN EXPECT FEW CLOUDS WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL THROUGH
SUNDAY. EACH AFTERNOON WILL SEE SOME BREEZY WINDS FROM THE WEST
SOUTHWEST. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THE REGION AND
CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH AND OR REACH RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWLANDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE EAST WILL RETURN TO THE AREA NEXT MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 82  59  83  55  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           81  53  84  51  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              80  48  79  47  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              80  52  79  51  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              58  38  59  38  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   78  49  77  46  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
SILVER CITY             70  44  70  40  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEMING                  80  46  79  44  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               78  44  77  41  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      82  59  83  55  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               81  54  84  51  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            84  56  88  54  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              77  55  78  52  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  82  56  86  53  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            82  53  82  50  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          80  55  79  53  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           80  46  79  45  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   80  48  79  46  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                79  50  78  49  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               81  53  79  52  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 66  46  68  44  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               65  42  67  42  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                64  44  66  43  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 69  40  70  37  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
HILLSBORO               76  45  77  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               79  45  78  44  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            68  42  69  40  62 /   0   0   0   0  10
HURLEY                  73  43  73  40  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLIFF                   77  39  75  39  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
MULE CREEK              74  35  73  33  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
FAYWOOD                 74  44  74  41  67 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANIMAS                  78  46  78  43  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 79  45  79  43  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          78  45  78  43  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              73  44  75  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     NMZ111.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD





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