Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 251442
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1042 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH KENTUCKY WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
EARLY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...A MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO
RETURN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS CONTINUED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. 12Z KILN SOUNDING SHOWED
A PRETTY SATURATED SOUNDING ABOVE 800 MB WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR
BELOW. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE
HIGH TEMPS TRICKY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOST LIKELY HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT TEMPS.

THE MAIN STORY OF THE DAY WILL BE A SURFACE LOW THAT IS FORECASTED
TO TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THE SURFACE LOW WAS CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER THE KANSAS/ MISSOURI
BORDER AND IS FORECASTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS FOR THE MOST PART TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE CWA. THE LATEST NAM HAS THE WARM FRONT STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA. NCAR ENSEMBLE AND NSSL WRF ENSEMBLES ALSO POINT TO
THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
SO WILL CONTINUE CURRENT WORDING IN HWO FOR SEVERE IN SOUTHERN
ZONES WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST.


PREVIOUS..
MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO OPEN UP AND AND TRACK
ACRS THE MID MS VLY TODAY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY EVENING.
WEAK AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS DEVELOPED WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

AS LOW APPROACHES 40 KT LLJ DEVELOPS...PROVIDING GOOD AXIS OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTH. MARGINAL INSTBY TO DEVELOP ACRS
THE FAR SOUTH TOWARD EVENING. WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACRS THE
ENTIRE FA WITH CHC OF THUNDER SOUTH. FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
EXIST IN UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP WESTERLY MEAN FLOW. BEST INSTBY AND
SHEAR LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH BUT WITH WARM FRONT INVOF OF OUR
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF PSBL SVR ACRS THE FAR
SOUTH.

PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY WITH HIGHS FROM NEAR
50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH SFC LOW TRACKING EAST ACRS KY
TONIGHT. MARGINAL INSTBY TO COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE UNIDIRECTIONAL
SHEAR ACRS THE FAR SOUTH AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. AS THE LOW SLIDES ESE PCPN WILL END
FROM NW TO SE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO BUILD SE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY. AS
DRIER AIR AND CLEARING DEVELOPS COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. LOWS
TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID 40S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING OUR WEATHER AND NW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT
TO SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST.

MODELS SHOWING A S/W ROTATING THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY
AROUND LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST. WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FCST WITH BEST MOISTURE TO THE EAST BUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION BUT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE
MUDDLED SURFACE PATTERN AND ONLY A WEAK RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO NOSE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR TUESDAY.

NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FOUND AS THE H5 PATTERN REALLY
GETS KNOCKED AROUND WITH WEAK RIDGES IN BETWEEN VARIOUS TROUGHS AND
CUTOFF LOWS DOWNSTREAM OF AN ENTRENCHED RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S.
THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL PREVAIL AND HAMPER ANY
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP WHICH WOULD NORMALLY BE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHER
SUN ANGLES OF THIS TIME IN THE SEASON.

INTERSPERSED PERIODS OF CLOUDS DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS ARE
EXPECTED WITH A GENERAL WARMING TREND AS TEMPS REACH AND SLIGHTLY
EXCEED CLIMO NORMALS BY DAY 7 BY TIPPING INTO THE 70S.

A SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE MEAN H5 RIDGE MAY RESULT IN A
HEIGHTENED THREAT OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE TAIL END OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE VFR TO START. THAT WILL CHANGE AS SHOWERS DEVELOP
AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER KENTUCKY.
GREATEST EFFECTS WILL BE AT CVG AND LUK WHERE PREVAILING SHOWERS
WITH MVFR ARE FORECAST AROUND 14Z. THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR IN
THE VICINITY THERE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY IFR
CEILINGS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT.

FARTHER NORTH AT DAY AND ILN...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM 16Z
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON. CMH AND LCK MAY SEE MVFR FOR A BRIEFER PERIOD THIS
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.

LATER IN THE FORECAST...DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH
WITH HIGH PRESSURE...BRINGING BACK VFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES/AR
NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO






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