Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 260403
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1103 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
AREA LATE LAST NIGHT AND THRU MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY HAS PUSHED SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT AND BETTER SUPPORT
FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS NEVER GOT TO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WITH
MOST OF THE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...THAT IS ABOUT IT AS FAR AS ANY MEASUREABLE PRECIP TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO EDGE SOUTH INTO THE LOWER LAKES WITH
A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDEST EARLY MORNING
LOWS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
EARLIEST LATER TONIGHT WITH OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES NOT
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT SUNDAY MORNING.

HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP/WEATHER GRIDS FOR THE REST
OF THE EVENING AND TWEAKED THE EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURE TRENDS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ZFP UPDATE HAS ALREADY BEEN SENT OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW CENTER AND WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL/SE ILLINOIS FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO LATEST
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 50
KTS AND SURFACE BASED CAPE 1000-1500 J JUST SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADO ARE
POSSIBLE NORTHWARD TO AROUND CLAY RICHLAND AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES AND
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 P.M. FOR THESE THREE
COUNTIES AND ADJACENT FORECAST AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE LOW
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...AND SHOWERS
AND LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE SYSTEM. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL/SE IL AS COOL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE
SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COOL AND DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL IL SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS. FOR CENTRAL IL...THIS WILL
PRODUCE COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 TO 65...LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE 30S...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND FAIRLY PERSISTENT LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES. THE COLDEST MORNING LOOKS TO BE MONDAY
MORNING...BUT PERSISTENT LIGHT WINDS LOOK TO MAKE FROST ONLY A
MARGINAL POSSIBILITY...MAINLY I-74 NORTH.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED BY MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT WITH THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING FAR TO THE
SOUTH AND ANOTHER WEAKER  WAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...MODELS HAVE
BEEN LIGHT IN AMOUNT AND INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
ANY PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL IL WITH THIS FEATURE...AND KEEPING
THE FORECAST DRY WITH THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND SHIFT EASTWARD LATE IN
THE WEEK TO RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE 70S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS WILL BE REPLACED BY VFR CONDITIONS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. LASTEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THE BACKEDGE OF THE MVFR CIGS WAS LOCATED
FROM JUST NORTH OF RANTOUL AND BLOOMINGTON...NORTHWEST TO NEAR
GALESBURG. THE CURRENT MOVEMENT SHOULD PUSH THE LOWER CLOUDS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BY 09Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 12 TO 17 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS AROUND 23 KTS...WITH THE WINDS DIMINISHING TO 8 TO 15 KTS
BY DAWN...BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN FROM A NORTHEAST DIRECTION ON
SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE MORNING THRU ABOUT 22Z.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY BY 00Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...SMITH


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