Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 051020
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
620 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY...ALTHOUGH MAY REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THE
FRONTAL ZONE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO
THE AREA BRINGING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

COMBINED FRONTAL ZONE/RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS UPPER
DISTURBANCE PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST. FRONTAL ZONE MAY REMAIN CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TO SPARK A FEW ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CARRY POPS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING ON.

RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST CONSENSUS TEMP NUMBERS ARE JUST SLIGHTLY LOW.
EXPECT THE 80 DEGREE MARK TO BE REACHED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REACHABLE EACH
AFTERNOON...AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION IN THE
ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEAR A BIT LOW EACH DAY ON MAX TEMPS...AND
REASONABLE ON MIN TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

WARM AND STORMY EXTENDED IS IN THE CARDS AS UPPER RIDGE...CURRENTLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES AND OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN COAST
AND ATLANTIC...AND A STRONG UPPER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST LEAVING CENTRAL INDIANA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER
LOW WILL SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW. THE 00Z ECMWF AND GEM AND THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FURTHER NORTHEAST WITH THIS FEATURE BY 00Z MONDAY
AS THEY TAKE IT TO WESTERN IOWA. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEANS HAD
IT WELL SOUTHWEST AND STRONGER OVER NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AT THAT
TIME. FAVOR A ECMWF...ECENS AND GEM BLEND WHICH KICKY SLIDES THE LOW
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT.

AT ANY RATE...ALL MODELS BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF TO THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO CENTRAL INDIANA. VARIOUS UPPER
WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND LATER THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM...SUGGEST REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS GOOD WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EACH PERIOD.

REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD ONLY DROP TO THE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 051200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 620 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...JUST SOUTH OF LAF...SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF
THERE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME. THINK THE MVFR FOG WILL
LIFT BY 12Z. OTHERWISE...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
THIS AFTERNOON AT LAF...BEING CLOSER TO THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF. CONFIDENT THAT
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH JUST DIURNAL CU ABOVE 5K FEET...CI AND OR AC AND
POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT FOG.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHWEST TODAY AND INCREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR SO
AFTER 16Z WITH GUSTS TO 16 KNOTS OR SO POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE
LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&


.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

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