Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 031526 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1026 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINA COAST RIDGING BACK OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS WAS
RESULTING IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR CWA THIS MORNING.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE CWA BUT
IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LOWER 60 DEGREE DEW POINTS HAVE WORKED BACK
INTO THE AREA...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WAS GETTING AN EARLY START. A
FEW MODELS HINT AT VERY LIGHT QPF THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR SOUTHWEST. WL
OPT NOT TO INCLUDE MENTION OF THIS AS ANY PCPN SHOULD BE BRIEF LIGHT
AND LIMITED IN AREA. HAVE INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO
CLOSER TO THE WARMEST GUIDANCE AS ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG INSOLATION IS
EXPECTED. MOST SITES WILL REACH THE LOWER 80S./22/

&&

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD. LONE
EXCEPTION IS POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE FOG AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY WITH
SOMEWHAT HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED. WILL INCLUDE COUPLE OF
HOURS OF MVFR AT MORE FOG PRONE SITES OF KHBG/KMEI. /AEG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL SEEM POSSIBLE FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH HAPPENING IN THE SHORT TERM.
MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARM AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON HELPING TO BRING IN SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH. WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST...LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES...WHERE MODELS SHOW
A LITTLE WEAKNESS. NO BIG CHANGES FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE
IN AGREEMENT DURING THE PERIOD WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT MID LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN LEADING TO RIDGING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING IN
THE COLUMN WILL ALLOW A CAP TO FORM AROUND 700 MB SIGNIFICANTLY
LIMITING ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE TN VALLEY...RESULTING IN
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES AND NO APPRECIABLE
CHANGE IN THE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE GULF EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. WITH WARMING IN THE COLUMN AND
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN THE DIURNAL RANGE
AS MAX TEMPS CREEP UPWARD. COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
THE DRY AIRMASS WILL EFFICIENTLY RADIATE THE DAYTIME HEATING./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       83  56  82  58 /   4   3  10   6
MERIDIAN      82  53  83  57 /   0   2   8   5
VICKSBURG     83  55  82  61 /   6   3  11   9
HATTIESBURG   84  56  83  60 /   4   6  18  10
NATCHEZ       83  58  80  61 /   9   4  26  15
GREENVILLE    83  57  83  61 /   2   1   4   5
GREENWOOD     82  55  83  61 /   0   1   8   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/AEG/07/26


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