Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KJAX 031912
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
312 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE WINDS LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS...HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BY A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
LOWS ACROSS INLAND AREAS TONIGHT...WHICH YIELDS LOWS IN THE MID
50S FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL
AREAS MORE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

A COASTAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT ONSHORE MONDAY MORNING AND A FEW LIGHT
COASTAL SHOWERS MAY MOVE ASHORE ON MONDAY. WE STILL FEEL THAT THE
MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE SHOWERS OVER LAND ON MONDAY GIVEN THE
VERY SHALLOW NATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE STRENGTH OF
THE MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DEGREE OF DRY AIR ABOVE
THIS INVERSION. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE MOSTLY CONFINED POPS TO THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL ZONES SOUTH OF
PONTE VEDRA BEACH WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAKING IT ONSHORE ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MONDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND
AND MID 70S AT THE BEACHES.

.SHORT TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STRETCH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY WITH BREEZY ONSHORE
FLOW BEGINNING DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING AT 10-15 MPH GUSTING
20-25 MPH THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLER ALONG THE COAST IN THE UPPER 70S WITH ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. INLAND LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY AND REACH INTO THE LOW 80S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INVERTED TROUGH
BEGINS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON JUST NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS...CLOSING OFF AND MOVING NORTHWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF THE
NORTH FLORIDA COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY IN COASTAL AREAS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO A
MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED IN
NE FL AND COASTAL SE GA. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY ARE PERSISTENT IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW
60S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A SFC
LOW WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST ON THURSDAY WHICH
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND BREEZY NORTH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
FOR THE LOCAL COAST. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE LOW MOVES
SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE GEORGIA/CAROLINA
COAST AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH LOCALLY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
PERSIST WITH CONTINUED ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN
COASTAL AREAS. MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE BEGINNING FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH AFOREMENTIONED
LOWS MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH. FOR SATURDAY...HAVE KEPT PRECIP
CHANCES SCATTERED EAST OF I-75 FOR NOW BUT THERE IS LITTLE
CERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NHC HAS BEGUN ISSUING SPECIAL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS ON THIS LOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF IT
GAINING SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE CAROLINAS. SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET OVER THE OUTER
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS REQUIRES THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE OFFSHORE ZONES BEGINNING TONIGHT. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH MID WEEK AND MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE ZONES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

SEAS BEYOND MID WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS SEAS UP TO 8 FEET AND THIS MAY END UP BEING
TOO HIGH...AND UPDATES TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK AND GAIN A BETTER
UNDERSTANDING OF THE PRESSURE PATTERN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH MIDWEEK AS ONSHORE WINDS AND
EASTERLY SWELLS INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  55  83  58  81 /   0  10   0   0
SSI  63  78  65  75 /  10  10   0  20
JAX  57  80  61  80 /  10  10  10  20
SGJ  65  77  66  78 /  10  20  10  20
GNV  55  83  60  82 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  57  83  61  83 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER/GUILLET/



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.