Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 070533
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1233 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS NEXT 24-30 HOURS
THOUGH SOME BASES AT TIMES SCT-BKN040 WITH CONVECTIVE PROCESSES.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA OVER WESTERNMOST
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL BE OMITTED FROM TAFS DUE TO LOW
POP BUT MAY PROMPT AMDS AS NEEDED LATER TODAY. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 805 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ROUTINE FLIGHT TERMINATED ALMOST IN THE SAME LOCATION AS LAST
NIGHTS FLIGHT...NEAR GRAND ISLAND AT THE NORTHEAST END OF LAKE
BORGNE/SOUTHWEST END OF MISSISSIPPI SOUND. FLIGHT TERMINATED AFTER
95 MINUTES AT AN ELEVATION OF 108.3K FEET OR 20.5 MILES.

AIRMASS HAS MOISTENED CONSIDERABLY...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE OF 1.44 INCHES...ABOUT A HALF INCH INCREASE FROM THIS
MORNING. THIS IS ABOUT 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL. NO LOW LEVEL CAP TO
SPEAK OF THIS EVENING WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF -5 AND ABOUT 2000
CAPE. FREEZING LEVEL AT 13.2K FEET...AND -20C AT 23.7K FEET. WET
BULB ZERO WAS AT 8600 FEET. SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM LAUNCH THROUGH
ABOUT 800 MB...GRADUALLY VEERING TO NORTHWEST BY ABOUT 550
MB...AND THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH 100 MB. MAX WIND 50 KNOTS
AT 30K FEET. 35

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF
SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE IN
THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. FROM
700MB AND ABOVE...A STRONG RIDGE AXIS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK VORTICITY LOBES RIDING UP AND OVER
THE RIDGE AS THEY EJECT OUT OF THE BASE OF A TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES. HOWEVER...THE RIDGING AND RESULTANT SUBSIDENCE AND
CAPPING ALOFT WILL BE THE MORE DOMINANT FEATURE. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT TO ONLY SEE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED MARINE LAYER
SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BANDS THROUGH
SATURDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS AT A MAXIMUM. GIVEN
THIS...HAVE KEPT IN LOW POPS OF AROUND 20 PERCENT IN THE FORECAST
FOR EACH DAY. WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTING INTO THE LOW
LEVELS...AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGHS WILL RANGE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S EACH NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PATTERN WILL TURN MORE UNSETTLED FOR NEXT WEEK...AS A SERIES
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL VORT LOBES EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS SLIDES
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK FRONT
WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND BECOME STALLED ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
FRONT...COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH EACH
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. HAVE WENT WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES BEGINNING MONDAY
AND PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POPS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN PEAK HEATING AND THE GREATEST OVERALL
INSTABILITY OCCURS. FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES...HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR EACH DAY GIVEN THE WEAKER FORCING
EXPECTED FOR THIS PORTION OF THE CWA. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S EACH DAY.

AVIATION...

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. SCT TO BKN CONVECTIVE CU EXPECTED AT AROUND
5000 FT AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTER 15Z.

MARINE...

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF THE MARINE ZONES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REMAINS DOMINATED BY A
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET IN THE
OPEN GULF WATERS. OVERALL...A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER REGIME IS
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  64  86  65  85 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  67  86  68  86 /  20  20  10  20
ASD  66  84  67  84 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  69  84  70  84 /  20  10  10  10
GPT  68  83  68  82 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  65  84  66  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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