Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 042032
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
332 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

  * Severe Thunderstorm Watch 128 remains in effect until 8 pm
    CDT/7 pm MDT for Eddy and Lea counties in southeastern New
    Mexico and Culberson and Jeff Davis counties in west Texas.

  * Tornado Watch 129 remains in effect until 8 pm CDT for
    Brewster,Crane, Loving, Pecos, Reeves, Terrell, Ward, and
    Winkler counties.

 *  A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until 7 am CDT/6 am MDT
    for Eddy and Lea counties in southeastern New Mexico and for
    Andrews, Borden, Dawson, and Gaines counties in west Texas.

Little time for discussion owing to impending heavy rainfall/flash
flooding and convective weather threats. CAMs have suggested for
several runs now that a storm (now apparently over northern Jeff Davis
county) will translate east and then begin to turn to the right as
effective shears increase to above 50 kts. Along and south of the
Pecos, there`s enough phasing between instability, CAPE, and shear
to promote discrete supercellular structures until at least 01Z.
If there`s enough balance between SR inflow and a supercell`s
rear flank downdraft, a tornado or three is not out of the
question.

Farther north, multicellular structures are apparent now and we
should see further upscale growth into a west-east trending MCS by
sunset. With increasing moisture (DRT showed +2SD precip water
values this morning) and a strengthening low level jet, a good supply
of moisture will feed these storms. Aloft, a 110 kt+ jet streak
translating eastward across northern Mexico will become difluent
(with one "f") over eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle.
Deep layer vertical motion profiles will further support deep
layer lift and efficient rain producers. As such, the flash flood
watch has been extended east to cover areas where forecast
rainfall more than 2" (isolated > 4") are possible tonight.

Should see a bit of a break tomorrow under subsidence in the wake
of the MCS. Low level moisture will be slow to move east, and as
soon as sig insolation can be realized, more convective overturning
is forecast, particularly near the mountains tomorrow afternoon and
evening.

High temperatures will stay close to normal through the week while
lows will be somewhat warmer than normal due to higher low level
moisture content. The best chances for thunderstorms will be across
the eastern Permian Basin/lower Trans Pecos each afternoon and
evening; however, wouldn`t`t be surprised to see PoPs increase
nearer to the mountains as well.

With a focus on the meso-alpha scale today, little changes were
made to the forecast Day 3 and have stayed close to the NAM12 in
the Day 1-3 periods. We did shift PoPs east a bit to marry up
better with HPC guidance.

For graphics on excessive rainfall forecasts from the Weather
Prediction Center, go to http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94ewbg.gif
and for text http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatchmpd.php

Users can subscribe to the Storm Prediction Center`s Twitter feed
using @NWSSPC for latest in Mesoscale Convective Discussions and Watch
Status messages.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 61  81  58  84  /  60  20  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              63  81  64  84  /  30  30  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                57  82  53  85  /  40  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  65  84  67  86  /  30  10  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           63  84  60  86  /  30  10  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          53  75  53  79  /  20  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   59  79  53  82  /  70  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   49  78  43  82  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    61  80  63  84  /  30  20  20  20
ODESSA TX                  62  81  62  84  /  40  20  20  20
WINK TX                    65  85  56  87  /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through late
     tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...
     Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...
     Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday
     morning FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...
     Dawson...Gaines.


&&

$$

84/70

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