Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 062316
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
616 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.UPDATE...

AVIATION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS BELOW...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER WARM EARLY MAY DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LOW AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WAS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S. CHANGES WILL GRADUALLY TAKE PLACE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WEST...ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR...
THE MO BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TN. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT.

FOR TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND DOMINATE MIDSOUTH
WEATHER. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS CLIPPING NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS NORTHEAST. LOWS
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE COOL TO MILD WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE.

THE WEATHER THURSDAY WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THAT OF TODAY.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL AFFECT THIS AREA WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING LESS CAPPED
THROUGH THIS REGION.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE SOME AND SPREAD
FURTHER EASTWARD FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHWEST
TN. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
AREAS WITH A MORE UNSTABLE AND LESS CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. WARM DAYS AND
MILD NIGHTS WILL PERSIST.

BY SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS WHERE
THE MAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT AND
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. WITH THE TROUGH DEEPENING THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...THIS MAY HELP TO DECREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOME AREAS
OF THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
MIDSOUTH WILL FINALLY GET SOME RAIN. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FROM
THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
FROM THE WEST. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR BUT THE GREATEST
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS TO THE NORTH. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ATTM.

A LITTLE COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT MAKING
FOR SOME VERY NICE SPRING WEATHER. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY
SPREAD BACK INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH MS AND EAST CENTRAL AR WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS OVERRUNNING OCCURS OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
THAT WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH BY THAT TIME.

JCL

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE NOCTURNALLY AT ALL SITES WITH A STEADY
INCREASE TOMORROW INTO THE 10-15KT RANGE FROM THE SOUTH BY 15-18Z.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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