Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 210550
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
150 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.AVIATION...

SMOKE FROM INTERIOR MIAMI-DADE WILDFIRE HAS BEEN PRESENT AT MIA
FOR SEVERAL HOURS, AND WITH THE WIND DIRECTION CONSTANT, MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO
CENTRAL FL AND BECOMING DIFFUSE, WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS
REGIONWIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TEMPO
MVFR/IFR CONDS AT TIMES. WIND SHIFT/EAST FLOW ARRIVES INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015/

UPDATE...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH
FLORIDA WAS DROPPED EARLIER THIS EVENING AS THE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WAS STARTING TO DISSIPATE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ACROSS GLADES COUNTY AND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND STARTING TO EXIT THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
NORTH FLORIDA WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY
WINDS NOW PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.

A LARGE WILD FIRE CONTINUES IN INTERIOR MIAMI DADE COUNTY.
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING PATCHY SMOKE
INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIAMI DADE METRO AREA. SO FAR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 802 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015/

AVIATION...

FOR THE SHORT TERM...A CONTINUED WILD FIRE CONTINUES IN INTERIOR
MIAMI DADE COUNTY WITH THE SMOKE PLUME MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST
DIRECTLY TOWARDS TERMINAL KMIA. THERE COULD BE OCCASIONAL
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH SMOKE SO A TEMPO FOR 5SM VISIBILITY
AND SMOKE WAS ADDED TO THE TAF FROM 00Z TO 04Z AND MAY HAVE TO BE
CONTINUED FOR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR TERMINAL KOPF.

IN GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION AND
FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT...WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TERMINALS
KOPF AND KMIA AS EXPLAINED ABOVE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINING SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
ACTIVE CONVECTION IS FORECAST FOR SOUTH FLORIDA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015/

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 87 UNTIL 7 PM EDT FOR PALM
BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...

SHORT TERM...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THIS EVENING KEEPING THE 500 MB
TEMPS AROUND -9C. AT THE SAME TIME...A 50 TO 100 KNOT JET WILL
ALSO BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH EVEN SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS ALSO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE
COUNTIES OF PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE UNTIL 7 PM EDT
THIS EVENING.

SMOKE FROM THE PERSISTENT WILDFIRE JUST WEST OF THE MIAMI-DADE
METROPOLITAN AREA MAY LEAD TO RESTRICTED VISIBILITY OVER AREAS
OF MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF
THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE.

A COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE. THEREFORE...THE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA EACH DAY.

THERE COULD AGAIN BE A FEW STRONG STORMS ON WEDNESDAY OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THE STRONG STORMS WILL BE SMALL
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

LONG TERM...
THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL MOVE BACK NORTHWARD
LATE THIS WEEK...AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF COAST STATES AND MOVES EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE OF A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE CWA LATE THIS WEEK AND
FOCUS THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN
AREAS.

AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
WEEKEND...THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR TO THE AREA
FOR THIS WEEKEND.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH DIRECTION AT
15 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE SWINGING TO A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 5 FEET
IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  72  84  72 /  70  60  70  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  75  85  75 /  70  50  70  30
MIAMI            89  74  86  74 /  70  40  70  20
NAPLES           86  73  85  72 /  50  40  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...21/KM



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