Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 262018
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
418 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 133 PM SUN...LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WITH
TROUGHING EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES GETTING SQUEEZED BETWEEN THIS LOW
AND LOW DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST. NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AS
LOW PRESSURE ACCELERATES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
IN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ATMOSPHERE DRYING OUT BUT SOME MID
LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINING FOR SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 141 PM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WILL BUILD
INTO NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM OVER
TODAYS VALUES...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES...REACHING
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT DURING PERIOD
AND HAVE COME IN TO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW
THAT WILL AFFECT AREA WED-FRI AND WILL BE MAIN WX FEATURE DURING
PERIOD.

MON NIGHT-TUE...FINAL SHRT WV ROTATING AROUND UPR LOW OFF NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA MON NIGHT INDUCING BRIEF
SECONDARY CAA SURGE. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL EXTEND OVER AREA FROM NW
TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE 5-10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL.

TUE NIGHT-FRIDAY...SHRT WV DIVING INTO NRN PLAINS WILL ACT AS
KICKER TO GET SRN PLAINS UPR LOW MOVING OVER SE US. ALL MAIN OP
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN GULFMEX AND
TRACK NEAR COASTAL CAROLINAS LATE WED INTO THU...AND OFFSHORE
FRIDAY. 12Z GFS HAS LOW JUST INLAND OF COAST OVER ERN NC THU AFTN
WHILE ECMWF IS JUST OFFSHORE. NAM APPEARS TO BE A OUTLIER WITH
LOW TRACK 18 HOURS FASTER. USED BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST WITH
GFS...ECMWF AND WPC...INDICATING TRACK NEAR COAST THU AND
STRONGEST WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW AS IT DEEPENS OVER WARMER
GULFSTREAM WATERS.

WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MODEL CONFIDENCE...INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
OVER SRN SECTIONS LATE WED...SPREADING N WED NIGHT AND ALL AREAS
FOR THU. INLAND GFS TRACK WOULD RESULT IN BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM
SECTOR CONDITIONS ALONG COAST AND PSBL TSTMS...BUT NOT MENTIONING
AT THIS TIME. PCPN DIMINISHING W TO E THU NIGHT. INDICATING DRY
FCST FOR FRIDAY BUT ECMWF DOES INDICATE PSBL SHOWERS WITH
SECONDARY SHRT WV. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DURING
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY HIGH TEMPS WED-THU WITH WET CONDITIONS.

FRI NIGHT-SUN...RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH AND DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO MID 70S INLAND SAT AND UPR 70S
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH
THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE LIFTS OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BACK BTW 00Z AND 01Z TONIGHT.
SOME GRADUALLY CLEARING CAN OCCURR OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE COULD
LEAD TO PATCHY FOG. AT THIS TIME...THINK IT WILL BE MORE GROUND FOG
AND NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TAF SITES.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...VFR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE NGIHT WITH DRY
WEATHER FORECAST. SUB-VFR PSBL WITH DEVELOPING RAIN WED AND LIKELY
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU WITH WDPRD RAIN ACCOMPANIED BY LOW VSBYS AND
CIGS. GUSTY WINDS LIKELY THU INTO FRI WITH LOW PRES MOVING ALONG
COAST AND THEN OFFSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM SUN...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN SOMEWHAT. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN MODERATELY TIGHTER OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
4 TO 6 FEET. AS GRADIENT RELAXES WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. GRADIENT WILL HAVE RELAXED SO SPEEDS
AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS AREA WED NIGHT
AND THU...AND INCREASED WINDS TO INDICATE SLIGHTY BETTER FCST
CONFIDENCE. STILL SOME DIFFENCES ON TRACK WITH GFS INLAND AND
ECMWF OFF COAST...AND USED BLEND WITH TRACK JUST OFFSHORE.

FOR MON NIGHT-TUE...BRIEF SECONDARY CAA SURGE WILL PRODUCE PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS FOR NRN AND CENTRL WATERS WITH NW WIND AROUND 20
KT AND SEAS AROUND 6 FT OUTER PORTIONS.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH WEAK HIGH PRES OVER AREA TUE NIGHT AND
WED...THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRES WED AND
WED NIGHT.

STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY ON BACKSIDE OF LOW AS IT STRENGTHENS
OFFSHORE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR
NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS.

REMAINED CONSERVATIVE WITH SEAS FCST...HOLDING PEAK SEAS 5-8 FT
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG
NEAR TERM...CCG
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/BM
MARINE...CCG/JBM/BM



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