Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 050229 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1030 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE IS PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA AND BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW IS MOISTENING THE LOW LEVELS WITH
SCATTERED ATLC SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE COAST. RAISED RAIN CHANCES
OVER BREVARD COUNTY THRU THE OVERNIGHT AS THERE APPEARS TO BE A BAND OF
PERSISTENT SHOWERS OFFSHORE. DO NOT EXPECT PROLONGED HEAVY RAINS...MORE
LIKE ON AND OFF FAST MOVING SHOWERS THOUGH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

TUE...A WINDY DAY AS EASTERLY PRES GRAD TIGHTENS DUE TO INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE BAHAMAS IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING
INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH
OF EC FL FOR WINDS 20 MPH AND GUSTY. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
FROM THE EAST WHICH WILL PRODUCE A HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ESP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTH WITH ISOLD THUNDER. HIGHS IN THE U70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST AND L80S FOR THE INTERIOR.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT...MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOW PRETTY SIGNIFICANT
DISCREPANCIES IN BOTH THE STRENGTH...FORWARD SPEED AND LOCATION OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. THE 12Z/18Z NAM IS STILL FASTER THAN THE GFS IN
LIFTING IT NWD ACROSS OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST...AND REMAINS SEVERAL MB
DEEPER. THE ECM HOLDS FIRM IN A WEAKER SYSTEM CLOSING OFF MORE SLOWLY
AND LIFTING NWD MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE AT A FORWARD SPEED SIMILAR TO THE
NAM. THIS PACKAGE TAKES CONSENSUS BLEND THAT GIVES A BIT MORE WEIGHT TO
THE STRONGER/CLOSER SOLUTIONS.. THIS YIELDS WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER THAN
THE OFT-TRUSTED ECM...BUT WINDS UP BEING PRETTY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. NHC PROBS FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A (SUB)TROPICAL STORM REMAIN
AT 30 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

NE LOW LVL WINDS WILL PRODUCE ONSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
EVEN A FEW GUSTY SQUALLS HERE ALONG COASTAL COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR WITH LOWEST CHANCES FROM THE INTERIOR NWWD ACROSS LAKE
COUNTY. BREEZY/MARGINALLY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND BEACHES. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME BEACH EROSION AROUND
THE TIMES OF THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES... WHICH WILL BE NEAR
BUT JUST COMING DOWN FROM THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH DUE TO LAST NIGHT`S
FULL MOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD WELL OFFSHORE NORTH
OF THE CAPE BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION CENTER. BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS. LOW CENTER LIFTS FARTHER N-NNE OF THE CAPE BY LATE WED
NIGHT WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE NW. THIS ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO WRAP
AROUND ITS BACK SIDE SLOT AND START WORKING INTO THE NRN AND CTRL CWA.
KEPT A LOW SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS NORTH CSTL AREAS AND SRN SECTIONS WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AND SPEED OF THE LOW.

SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HAZARDOUS FOR MID WEEK WITH
NUMEROUS STRONG RIP CURRENTS. HIGHS AROUND 80 AT THE COAST AND
L-M80S INLAND.

THU-MON (PREV)...THE MID LVL CLOSED LOW AND SFC LOW SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER NW MID LVL FLOW AND
LOWERING MOISTURE LEVELS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO POPS IN THE 10-20 PCT
RANGE AND OVERALL DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. A N/NE SWELL IS EXPECTED THU WITH
AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUING FOR THU. DECREASING
SWELLS/WINDS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL LOWER THE RIP CURRENT
RISK BY SAT AND SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR TONIGHT...EXCEPT TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING OVER
THE INTERIOR BUT WILL REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS.
SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE ON TUE...ESP SOUTH FROM A KMCO-KTTS LINE. ISOLD
THUNDER POSSIBLE SOUTH OF KMLB AS WELL.   TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS WITH
SHRA/TSRA ON TUE. BECOMING WINDY WITH EAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND
GUSTY.

&&

.MARINE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST.
POOR/HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERN WATERS WITH A CAUTION FOR
THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT. EASTERLY GRADIENT IS
FORECAST TO TIGHTEN A BIT MORE TUE SO THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED TO THE BREVARD AND VOLUSIA NEARSHORE WATERS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET.

TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT...SFC LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH FROM
NRN/NW BAHAMAS AND INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TUE NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WED. NE WINDS TUE NIGHT VEER TO NNE-N EARLY WED AND NNW-NW BY
LATE AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES NWD TO OUR
EAST. PRELIM INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
FARTHER INTO WED AS SOME SWELL COMPONENT WILL KEEP COMBINED SEAS AT OR
A LITTLE ABOVE 7FT. WILL DEFER AT LEAST ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE TO GET
A LITTLE BETTER FEEL FOR PEAK WINDS/SEAS AND TIMING OF SUBSEQUENT DECAY.

THU-SAT...WITH THE SFC LOW CENTER NORTHEAST OF THE MARINE AREA...
INITIALLY STOUT NW FLOW WILL WEAKEN...BUT REMAIN GENERALLY OFFSHORE
AT LEAST INTO FRI. NE SWELL OF AT LEAST MODERATE (4-5FT) HGT WILL BE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  79  71  79 /  20  20  40  40
MCO  66  83  68  86 /  10  30  30  30
MLB  72  80  72  83 /  20  40  50  40
VRB  70  80  71  83 /  30  60  50  50
LEE  65  83  66  84 /  10  20  10  20
SFB  65  83  67  83 /  10  20  30  30
ORL  66  82  68  85 /  10  30  30  30
FPR  70  79  70  83 /  40  60  50  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-
     60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60
     NM.

&&

$$

KELLY/WIMMER


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