Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 271749
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
149 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOWS NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO ONE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WELL EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFT TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A FEW UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MAY IMPACT THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE AND VORT CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO THE REGION AROUND AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME. RADAR WAS PICKING UP ECHOES
OF 10 TO 25 DBZ SCATTERED ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE WAVE AND SOME DAYTIME HEATING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND THE AREAL COVERAGE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE WAS A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD NEARLY
STEADY THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE CLOUDS HAVE RETURNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER. WILL BE DRY THE BALANCE OF
THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S...NEARLY SEASONABLE.

A FEW INSTABILITY CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TUE AFT WITH A
CYCLONIC FLOW. STILL EXPECTING MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS. GUSTY NW
WINDS UP TO 20 MPH WILL CONTINUE. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN MON...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S...WHICH IS
ALSO CLOSE TO BEING SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM...SO WONT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES WITH LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY WEATHER
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

MODELS START TO DIFFER DURING THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE 00Z GFS HAS A SOLUTION WITH THE LOW
OFF THE NJ COAST AND THEN MOVING EAST...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO
THE REGION FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF
HOWEVER BRINGS THE LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA COAST AND
MOVES THE LOW EAST...KEEPING THE REGION MOSTLY DRY. WILL CONTINUE TO
FOLLOW THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH HAS HAD BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS THAN THE GFS. WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS IN THE
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GFS
TRENDS...BUT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

A FEW UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY LIGHT QPF WOULD IMPACT THE
REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.

VFR. ISOLD-SCT SHWRS MAINLY E OF THE CITY THIS AFTN/EVE...BUT
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY RAIN.

NW WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT. DIRECTION MOSTLY NORTH OF 310
MAGNETIC.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS FAVOR
NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC MOST OF THE DAY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS FAVOR
NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC MOST OF THE DAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS FAVOR
NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC MOST OF THE DAY.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SAT...
.TUE PM...VFR. NW G20KT.
.WED...VFR.
.THU...VFR. EAST G15-20KT PM.
.FRI...CHC SUB-VFR/RAIN. CHC NE G25KT.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SERIES OF LOWS NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONSOLIDATE
INTO ONE MAIN LOW WELL EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY WED. AT THE SAME
TIME...WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MID SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WATERS UNDER A W-NW FLOW TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND NLY ON TUE. SEAS REMAIN UNDER 5 FT TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. MIXING WILL BE LIMITED OVER THE WATERS TODAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE NOT EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE OCCASIONAL NEAR SHORE GUSTS THAT APPROACH 25 KT TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS NO LONGER EXPECTED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL STORM AT THE END OF THE
WEEK....SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
COASTAL LOW AT THE END OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR A
POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT. THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES
AT THIS TIME THAT VARY SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE TRACK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...MET


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