Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 070000
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
700 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS WERE DELAYED SLIGHTLY BY SOFTWARE ISSUES. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF WEATHER ELEMENTS REMAINS POOR BEYOND A FEW HOURS.
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
AFFECTING KOKC...KSPS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TSRA MAY CONTINUE
OFF AND ON ALL NIGHT...BUT PREDICTABILITY DOES NOT WARRANT
INCLUSION IN TAFS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST ON LOW MVFR OR IFR
CEILINGS TOMORROW MORNING...WHICH SEEMS POSSIBLE WITH THE EFFECTS
OF THE STORMS. DIURNAL LIFTING OF THE CEILINGS MAY BE SLOWER
TOMORROW THAN TODAY...DELAYING THE ONSET OF VFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS. THERE IS A NEARLY EQUAL CHANCE OF TSRA EVERYWHERE
DURING THE ENTIRE DAY TOMORROW...BUT HAVE LIMITED MENTION IN TAFS
TO THE MOST CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TIMES.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE MINIMALLY-CAPPED
UNSTABLE/HIGH-SHEAR ATMOSPHERE THAT IS OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. WE EXPECT A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING....MAINLY IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. UNLIKE LAST
NIGHT...NO ORGANIZED REGION OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
SOME STORMS MAY PERSIST PAST MIDNIGHT...BUT THEY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SCATTERED...AND NOT AN ORGANIZED COMPLEX.

THE CHANCE FOR RAIN...INCLUDING STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. THERE IS
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING ABOUT EACH DAY...WITH A
LOWER RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY...SOMEWHAT HIGHER ON
FRIDAY...MUCH HIGHER ON SATURDAY...AND DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO
EAST ON SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE A COOL AND QUIET PERIOD...FOR A COUPLE
OF DAYS...AT LEAST. MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES RISE AGAIN MIDWEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  77  64  79 /  50  50  60  50
HOBART OK         62  77  64  79 /  50  50  60  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  79  66  79 /  60  50  50  50
GAGE OK           62  80  59  80 /  20  40  60  50
PONCA CITY OK     66  79  63  80 /  40  40  70  50
DURANT OK         65  79  67  80 /  40  40  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/26/23



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