Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 020506
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1206 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...SOUTH WINDS TO REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
BY 09Z...THEN CONTINUE SOUTHEAST THROUGH AROUND 15Z
THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT. A FEW MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOPING FROM
09Z/10Z THROUGH 16Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW IN STRATUS
PREVAILING FOR THAT LONG. WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO GROUPS FOR IFR/MVFR
CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS BUT KGAG/KWWR. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR
I-40 THEN LIFT NORTHWARD AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
EAST OF ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...ISOLATED TSRA CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NW OK...AND WILL
MENTION VCTS IN KWWR/KGAG TAFS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MORE OR LESS
DIMINISH BY AROUND 03Z. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT. THE
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL SOMEWHERE ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR BEFORE
STALLING OR LIFTING NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THURS...RESULTING IN TRICKY WIND FORECASTS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS
MAY OCCUR AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AND
WILL MENTION IN TEMPOS FOR ALL BUT KGAG/KWWR...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE DRIER POST FRONTAL AIR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
INITIAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THIS
REGION RESULTING IN LIGHT SHOWERS. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE HILL COUNTRY
COULD RESULT IN SOME MOIST CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND THE RED RIVER
VALLEY BUT EXPECT VERY LITTLE COVERAGE IF ANY. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AROUND CLAY COUNTY. OUT WEST...EVIDENCE OF
LIFT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES IS PRESENT IN VISIBLE SAT WITH AN ELEVATED CU FIELD
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE DRYLINE OVER THE PANHANDLES. ISOLATED
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH...A THREAT OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE
DOWNBURSTS. WILL LEAVE THE RFW IN PLACE THROUGH 8 PM ACROSS NW OK
WHERE RH CONTINUES TO DROP...BUT FEEL CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE
BRIEF. IN ADDITION...DRY LIGHTNING CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT AND
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LLJ DEVELOPS.

A COLD FRONT WILL STILL ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST. THE
SFC PATTEN LOOKS LIKE A NICE SETUP FOR STORMS. HOWEVER...STRONG SW
FLOW ABOVE THE SFC WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG CAP. A DRY SLOT WILL
THEN MOVE OVER OUR FA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE...DO
NOT EXPECT MANY STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA THURS WITH MOST STAYING
WELL NORTH OR EAST. THERE IS A CHANCE A VERY SUBTLE WAVE AROUND
700 MB COULD RESULT IN A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SE/E...BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR OUR AREA CONTINUES TO DECREASE FOR
THURS.

AS THE STRONGER WAVE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST FRIDAY...A FAIRLY
STOUT COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY DIVE SOUTH. BREEZY NORTH WINDS
AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR MOST OF THE REGION. DO NOT ANTICIPATED AN
ADVISORY RIGHT NOW...BUT WILL PASS THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS ON TO
THE NEXT SHIFT. A ~1030 MB SFC HIGH WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
SAT AM AND DEWPOINTS COULD DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE NW.
COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT FREEZING...ALTHOUGH FORECAST LOWS
ARE CURRENTLY JUST ABOVE THIS MARK. THE NEXT CHC OF STORMS/RAIN
WILL RETURN SUNDAY MORNING AS A COUPLE OF SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFT OUT OF WEST TEXAS. THE HIGHEST CHCS WILL BE
NEAR THE RED RIVER/SE OK SUN AM...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF STORMS
ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER THE W N TX BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  56  63  39  67 /  10  10   0   0
HOBART OK         53  63  37  67 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  62  68  41  67 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           46  60  33  69 /  10  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     50  60  34  68 /  30  10   0   0
DURANT OK         67  68  42  66 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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