Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041829
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
229 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT SAGGING ACROSS OHIO WITH
AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE UPPER 70 AND LOWER 80S. ADJUSTED MAX
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON 18Z TEMPS.

BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG FRONT IN OHIO WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
AS BOUNDARY BECOME HUNG UP ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PA. AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IN TRANSPORTED NORTH TONIGHT AHEAD OF BOUNDARY
EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LIKELY
POPS...AND CHC POPS SOUTH. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY BUT EXACT
PLACEMENT STILL UNCERTAIN...AS WELL HAS WHERE BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL SET UP. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH PUSH TUESDAY FOR FRONT TO BACKDOOR
TO KPIT FOR LIKELY POPS WITH CHC POPS SOUTH. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS MID WEEK FRONT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WITH DECREASING
SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO SNEAK BACK UP THE
RIDGES THURSDAY WITH DEVELOPING EASTERLY FLOW AND HAVE LEFT A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT BUT LESS SO FOR THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHERE COOL ADVECTION WILL
LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER 70S WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD H5 RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE NERN CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND.
AGGRESSIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION /WITH H9 TEMPS REACHING 20-22C/ IS
INDICATED IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS
OF THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION. WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MAXIMA
IN THE 80S AND MINIMA IN THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

THIS WARM AIR AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE TO
FUEL OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ANY SUCH STORMS WILL BE TIMED WITH SUBTLE WAVES THAT ARE NOT
RESOLVED PARTICULARLY WELL BY THE MODELS AT THIS TIME. THUS...POPS
IN THIS FORECAST FOLLOW A GENERAL DIURNAL TREND AND ARE FOCUSED
HIGHEST IN PROXIMITY TO LARGER-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH POSITION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST BEFORE
DAYBREAK AND STALLS. MID DECK WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND LOWER
TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS BEFORE DAYBREAK. ENOUGH COOL ADVECTION
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO EVENTUALLY BRING LOW MVFR MOST
PORTS AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS EXPECTED
AT KFKL.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS INTO WEDNESDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
DECAYS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.