Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 031418
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1017 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SUNDAY...

REGIONAL VIS IMAGERY SHOWS JUST A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SOME FAIR
WEATHER CU THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z KGSO RAOB SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEEP MIXING...UP TO NEAR 750MB...AND DRY ADIABATIC MIXING YIELDS
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. DEWPOINTS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
HIGH GIVEN THE EXPECTED MIXING...SO WILL LOWER VALUES A FEW DEGREES
INTO THE LOW/MID 40S.  NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ILLINOIS THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY EAST OF
THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PRECIP CHANCES: LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RETREATING OFFSHORE HIGH WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF DIURNAL
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER WESTERN
NC...WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT.

TEMPERATURES: INCREASE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A BATCH OF MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY SHOULD COUNTERACT
SLIGHT NUDGE UPWARD IN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES. HIGHS 77-81...COOLEST
ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS PROG
A WEAKNESS ALOFT TO MEANDER OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY WEAK
FORCING AND RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES LESS THAN AN
INCH)...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STAY MOSTLY DRY. CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
(DIURNAL AND TERRAIN DRIVEN)...BUT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN PRECIP
FREE AS ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE FOCUSED TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND WARM RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN
THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE ALL
THAT MUCH FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK...I.E. WARMING TEMPS AND MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BY THE END
OF THE WEEK WILL NEED TO MONITORED AS IT COULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER
DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK. FOR NOW MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND KEEP THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF
ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS DO BRING THE LOW A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. THUS
FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING OF INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO WARM EVEN MORE...WITH MOSTLY LOW/MID 80S EXPECTED...LIKELY
TEMPERED SOME (ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST) FOR THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 712 AM SUNDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL SUPPORT VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...AS THE HIGH RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SOME
EARLY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/22
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL


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