Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 061003
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
303 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING
A COOLING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY, AND INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH SNOW LIKELY IN THE
SIERRA. WARMER CONDITIONS AND DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL BRING COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR PORTLAND,
AND EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOR TODAY, INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL STILL BE LIMITED. SOME SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CA AND FAR WESTERN NV BUT
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
THEIR COOLING TREND TODAY, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AS DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP OVER THE SIERRA AND
FAR WESTERN NV. AREAS OF SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER
THE TAHOE BASIN AND THE RENO-CARSON CITY VICINITY THURSDAY MORNING.
SNOW LEVELS ARE PROJECTED TO DROP TO NEAR 5500 FEET, WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE TAHOE BASIN AND POTENTIAL FOR
SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS OVER MANY SIERRA PASSES DURING THE THURSDAY
MORNING COMMUTE, . MOST OF THE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL LIKELY EASE BY
MID-LATE MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING AND DECREASING COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION RESULT IN QUICK MELTING OF MOST SNOW FROM PAVED
SURFACES.

DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, THE MAIN FOCUS AREA FOR PRECIPITATION
SHIFTS QUICKLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, AND THEN COULD PERSIST OVER
EASTERN ALPINE, MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO
HIGHER ELEVATIONS, GENERALLY ABOVE 8000 FEET. SOME OF THE HIGHER
SIERRA PASSES SUCH AS EBBETTS AND SONORA PASSES WHICH HAVE
REOPENED MAY BECOME CLOSED AGAIN THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT IF THE
CURRENT STORM TRACK AND DEFORMATION ZONE LOCATION ENDS UP
VERIFYING. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SNOW BANDS, A FEW
LOCATIONS IN MONO COUNTY COULD RECEIVE 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW
BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE LOCALIZED TO HIGHER SIERRA ELEVATIONS WITH
LIMITED IMPACTS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 395.

THURSDAY WILL BE UNUSUALLY CHILLY FOR MAY AS TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 40S NEAR THE SIERRA WILL FEEL EVEN
COOLER, DUE TO BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER WITH AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
COULD PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL NEVADA, WHILE A SHORT PERIOD OF STRONGER EAST WINDS WITH
GUSTS OVER 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA RIDGES.

ON FRIDAY, THE MAIN LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA,
ALTHOUGH SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY WRAP AROUND AREAS SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. FARTHER NORTH, INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH THE COLDEST AIR EXITING THE
SIERRA AND DAYTIME HIGHS EXPECTED TO REBOUND BY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
THURSDAY, SNOW IMPACTS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD BE LESS
SIGNIFICANT COMPARED TO THURSDAY. MJD

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING LONG TERM FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE FLOW WITH CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY WITH A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING
ANOTHER UPPER LOW TO THE WEST COAST MONDAY/TUESDAY. THE LATEST EC/GFS
ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN THE LOCATION OF THE LOW. THE GFS REMAINS
FARTHER SOUTH WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW ACROSS OREGON. WENT
AHEAD AND LEFT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE
AND GERLACH FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS LIKELY
THROUGH TUESDAY. CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHERN LASSEN, NORTHERN WASHOE, AND NORTHERN PERSHING COUNTIES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS IT APPEARS THAT WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY BRUSH BY
THE REGION. WEISHAHN

&&

.AVIATION...

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT SHOULD BE
FOCUSED MOSTLY NORTH OF I-80. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A STORM OR
TWO SOUTH OF THIS LINE, CHANCES FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE
SIERRA/WRN NV TERMINALS ARE LESS THAN 20 PCT. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE
GUSTY WINDS TO 40 KTS FROM ANY STORMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR ALL AREAS. CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. WINDS WILL
TRANSITION FROM WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY TO NORTH-NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.
WEISHAHN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



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