Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 050957
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
457 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE TERMINAL
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. ALREADY SEEING TEMPO MVFR CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE SHV/GGG AND LFK TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
VCNTY OF THE LFK TERMINAL AS WELL. THROUGH THE MORNING...
EXPECTING TO SEE THE MVFR CLOUD COVER TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE NE TX TERMINALS AS WELL AS THE SHV AND POSSIBLY THE
TXK TERMINAL. MAY TEMPO THESE CONDITIONS AT THE ELD/MLU TERMINALS
AS WELL. ALSO EXPECTING MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE ACROSS MAINLY NE TX BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE COVERAGE BEGINS TO SHRINK IN COVERAGE TOWARDS THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. A RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY FROM THE SE AND WITH A STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS NE TX...EXPECT TO SEE THESE
TERMINAL LOCATIONS WITH STRONGER GUSTS...PERHAPS AS STRONG AS
20-25KTS. ALSO EXPECT STRONGER GUSTS IN AND AROUND TSTM ACTIVITY
TODAY.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHWRS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING AND MOVING NWD FROM THE GULF
COAST AND INTO DEEP E TX. A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS E TX/EXTREME WRN LA. THE COMBINATION OF PEAK
DIURNAL HEATING AND A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD
THROUGH W TX/W OK SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SE OK/E TX. TEMPS TODAY WILL LIKELY
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AREAWIDE.

VERY PERSISTENT PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS
WITH VERY LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EWD WHILE A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES BY NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA FIRMLY UNDER SWLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH SELY
SFC WINDS...PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION. UPPER WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL HELP PROVIDE ASCENT FOR SHWRS/TSTMS BUT CONVECTION WILL
PRIMARILY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN EACH DAY. HOWEVER...THE LARGE UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE NEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT
MAY PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR SHWRS/TSTMS. THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 7
DAYS...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SE
OK/E TX. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THE
FRONT ARRIVES LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  64  83  65 /  20  20  30  10
MLU  84  62  83  64 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  81  64  79  63 /  30  30  30  10
TXK  82  64  80  64 /  20  20  30  20
ELD  84  62  83  63 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  81  65  81  66 /  40  40  30  20
GGG  81  65  81  66 /  40  30  30  20
LFK  82  66  82  67 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13


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