Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 251327
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
827 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.UPDATE...
Updated forecast package to remove fog wording.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Fog has dissipated over the southeastern counties. No other
changes to the forecast package.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue across the major West Central Texas
terminals of KABI (Abilene) and KSJT (San Angelo) through the
period. The other 3 terminals across the southern and southeast
sections are seeing some patchy fog this morning, dropping flight
conditions to IFR at times. This should persist through sunrise,
but then very quickly dissipate by mid morning as the drier air
to the west moves into the area. West winds gusting 15 to 20 knots
will prevail during daylight hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Much quieter next 24 hours across West Central Texas. Weak ridging
aloft will combine with a dry westerly flow to keep dry conditions
in place for today and tonight. Surface moisture remains in place
this morning across the Heartland, where dewpoints are still in the
60s and some patchy fog is being noted. However, wind profiles show west
or southwest winds from just above the surface to 15 thousand feet.
Once the sun comes up and mixing begins, westerly downslope winds
will take over and the moisture will disappear. With the downslope
in place, stayed on the high side of guidance numbers, despite some
rainfall from Friday that must be evaporated away first. With a dry
air mass in place, overnight lows dropping down into the 50s once
again seems reasonable.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Monday Night)

There will be another chance of thunderstorms Sunday and Monday
across West Central Texas. There is some uncertainty on the
possibility of severe weather, but looks like Sunday afternoon and
evening will be the best chance. The models dig another strong upper
level trough into the southwest US which becomes a closed low and
swings out into western TX by Monday afternoon. Also, backing flow
aloft with increasing wind speeds setting a favorable 0-6km shear
profile. There will be a response at the surface with some pressure
falls by Sunday afternoon and developing dryline probably across our
eastern counties. The question is how much low level moisture return
and instability sets up across our area. Right now, looks like
isolated thunderstorms will develop across the eastern third of the
area late Sunday afternoon and evening. There is enough deep layer
shear and moderate instability for possibly a few severe storms,
along and east of a Haskell to Abilene to Menard line. The main
hazards will be large hail and damaging winds. Keeping the chance Pops
going across the northern and eastern parts of the area Sunday night
as low level return flow continues. For Monday, main upper level low
lifts out across Texas, with better mid level ascent over the
northern part of the area. The best chance of thunderstorms will
along and north of I-20 with likely Pops over Haskell and
Throckmorton counties. Going with chance Pops Monday night across
the northern half of the area. A few strong storms will be possible
Monday, but looks like the organized severe weather will be east of
our area. Temperatures will be warm Sunday with highs in the mid to
upper 80s.

(Tuesday through Saturday)

Cold front will have passed through the area by Tuesday morning. As
a result, expect gusty north winds and cooler temperatures for
Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will be in the 60s Tuesday. A quick
recovery for mid to late week with highs back in the 70s and 80s by
Thursday and Friday. Besides a chance of showers across mainly the
Big Country Tuesday, going with a dry forecast as no major upper
level storm systems in sight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  86  57  87  57  75 /   0   0  20  30  30
San Angelo  89  56  88  58  80 /   0   5  10  20  10
Junction  87  59  89  57  83 /   5   5  20  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15





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