Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 210031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Apr 21 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 21-Apr 23 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 21-Apr 23 2015

            Apr 21     Apr 22     Apr 23
00-03UT        4          5 (G1)     4
03-06UT        3          5 (G1)     4
06-09UT        4          4          4
09-12UT        4          4          2
12-15UT        4          3          2
15-18UT        5 (G1)     3          1
18-21UT        5 (G1)     3          1
21-00UT        5 (G1)     4          2

Rationale: G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected on
21-22 Apr in response to the arrival of a CME and later a high speed
solar wind stream.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 21-Apr 23 2015

              Apr 21  Apr 22  Apr 23
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 21-Apr 23 2015

              Apr 21        Apr 22        Apr 23
R1-R2           15%           15%           15%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance of R1 (Minor) or greater radio
blackouts, particularly from Region 2324.


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