Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FNUS71 KCTP 301448
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR C-04 RX...PA AIR NATIONAL GUARD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1048 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 EDT ON APRIL 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...

LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1400...THEN 9-15 STRIKES UNTIL
                    1700...THEN 16-25 STRIKES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4700-5300 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 8 TO 13 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............51  53  54  56  61  65  67  71  78  81
WEATHER COV.........                        CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE........                        RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                        SCH SCH SCH CHC
TEMP................56  58  59  61  62  62  62  63  63  61
RH..................55  53  52  51  51  50  48  48  50  52
20 FT WIND DIR......E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD......7   7   8   7   7   7   6   7   5   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.7 0.9 1.2 1.8 2.9 4.1 5.0 5.3 5.2 4.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.....E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
TRANSP WIND SPD.....12  12  10  9   9   9   9   10  12  13
LAL.................1   1   1   1   2   3   4   4   4   4
HAINES INDEX........4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY
                    MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 43.
MAX HUMIDITY........91 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING EAST 7 TO 8
                    MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
LAL.................9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 1900...THEN 1-8 STRIKES
                    UNTIL 2000...THEN NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100-3900 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 1400-1700 FT
                    AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 14 TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............84  88  90  88  89  89  89  89  89  90  91  92
WEATHER COV.........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............CHC CHC
TEMP................60  58  57  55  53  52  51  50  50  49  48  46
RH..................53  53  63  78  80  83  83  84  85  87  88  91
20 FT WIND DIR......SE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD......3   8   8   8   8   8   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......3.9 2.9 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.....E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
TRANSP WIND SPD.....14  15  16  16  16  16  16  15  15  15  14  14
LAL.................3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........4   4   4   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59.
MIN HUMIDITY........61 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-3200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3600-3800 FT
                    AGL LATE.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 13 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 2 TO 5
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............93  94  94  94  95  96  96  97  97  95  92  88
WEATHER COV.........SCH SCH SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............
TEMP................45  45  47  48  50  52  53  55  56  57  58  57
RH..................96  94  86  81  76  70  68  66  64  63  61  66
20 FT WIND DIR......NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N   N   N   N
20 FT WIND SPD......7   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.7 3.2 3.6 3.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.....E   E   E   E   E   E   NE  N   N   N   NW  NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....13  12  10  9   7   6   5   3   2   2   3   5
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3

$$
FORECASTER...WFO CTP/DANGELO
REQUESTED BY...TIM HAYDT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150430.C04RX.01/CTP


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