Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FNUS75 KFGZ 021645
FWSFGZ

SPOT FORECAST FOR UPPER BEAVER CREEK...CNF COCONINO NF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 AM MST SAT MAY 2 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 MST ON MAY 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

UPDATE TO INCREASE SHOWER...TSTORM....OUTFLOW WIND THREAT TODAY.

.DISCUSSION...
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY
SKIES AND A LOW THREAT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH BASED CONVECTION MAY BRING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO THE
FIRE SITE...DUE TO POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68.
MIN HUMIDITY........19 PCT.
WINDS (20 FT).......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
MAX VENT RATE.......EXCELLENT (145000 KNOT-FT).
CLEARING INDEX......1450.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO
                    12600 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 5 KNOTS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 41.
MAX HUMIDITY........60 PCT.
WINDS (20 FT).......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
MIN VENT RATE.......POOR (1100 KNOT-FT).
CLEARING INDEX......11.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO
                    800 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS DECREASING TO 5 TO 10
                    KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.
MIN HUMIDITY........32 PCT.
WINDS (20 FT).......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
                    25 MPH.
MAX VENT RATE.......EXCELLENT (114800 KNOT-FT).
CLEARING INDEX......1148.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

$$
FORECASTER...41
REQUESTED BY...JEFF THUMM
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150502.UPPER.02/FGZ


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