Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 061833
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
232 PM EDT WED MAY 06 2015

VALID MAY 06/1200 UTC THRU MAY 10/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...


12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ISSUES DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY FRI
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: BY DEFAULT

THE NHC AND WPC MEDIUM RANGE DESK PREFER THE INTERMEDIATE
PLACEMENT OF THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION OVER THE MORE NORTHWESTERN 12Z
CANADIAN OR SOUTHWESTERN 12Z GFS FOR THIS CYCLONE.  THIS
PREFERENCE IS MADE BY DEFAULT.


WEST/PLAINS/MIDWEST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: CANADIAN/ECMWF/NAM IN THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
            CANADIAN/ECMWF COMPROMISE IN THE WEST/PLAINS
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 12Z CANADIAN, 12Z ECMWF, AND 12Z NAM CLUSTER WELL AS A
CONSENSUS AND ARE A GOOD FIT TO THE 00Z ECMWF/06Z GEFS MEAN
SOLUTIONS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES.  WITH THE CLOSED LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST/THE PRESSURE PATTERN DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, THE PREFERRED IS SHIFTED
MORE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE 12Z CANADIAN/12Z ECMWF.  CONFIDENCE
IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE IN THESE CHOICES.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH
$$




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