Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 261023
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 8N13W TO
4N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 34W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM NORTH...AND 50 NM
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SURFACE TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE YUCATAN
EXTENDS FROM 25N88W TO 20N92W. SE WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE SE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH.
ELSEWHERE...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT IS OCCURRING OVER
THE NE GULF...WELL SOUTH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SE
US. S TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF THIS
MORNING WITH THE LACK OF FORCING FROM ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AS A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER
THE CENTRAL US AND MOVES TOWARD THE GULF STATES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1007 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W SUPPORTS ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH IS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CARIBBEAN TO 12N BETWEEN THE COLOMBIA COAST AND 78W. THE
CONVECTION MAY LINGER ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN THROUGH
THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WHICH INHIBITS DEEP CONVECTION.
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES. 10 TO 15 KT TRADE WINDS COVER MUCH
OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR WINDS APPROACHING 25 KT WITHIN 100 NM
OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND WITHIN 100 NM NORTH OF
THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM 84W TO 87W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND MAY
CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH FAIR WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE ISLAND. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLAND
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SUPPORTS
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION
NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. THIS CONVECTION IS SPREADING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD THIS MORNING AND WILL AFFECT WATERS N OF 28N
EASTWARD TO 60 W THROUGH TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1014 MB IS
OVER THE WESTERN ATLC NEAR 27N63W AND IS DISSIPATING TODAY AS
THE SYSTEM EXITING THE US COAST MOVES EASTWARD. FARTHER EAST...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N49W TO 23N63W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 47W AND
55W. A STATIONARY 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 24N32W...WHILE A
1017 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N24W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH
THIS LOW. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY OFF
THE NORTH FL COAST TO 60W AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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