Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 241120
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
620 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A SHARP INCREASE IN SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD BE NOTICED ACROSS
WESTERN KS AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
EASTERN CO TO NORTHEAST KS BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS INCREASED SURFACE
MOISTURE MIGHT LEAD TO A FEW AREAS OF DRIZZLE AS THE MODELS INDICATE
THIS MORNING, BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY CONTRIBUTE TO MUCH HIGHER
SURFACE BASED CAPES BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WILL BE
PRESENT TO AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS EARLY AS THE 18 TO 20 UTC
TIMEFRAME.

WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE THREATS, HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE EVENT. A TORNADO RISK IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY GIVEN
THE DEEP SHEAR AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/HIGH SURFACE DEW
POINTS. THE PARALLEL FLOW TO THE BOUNDARY MIGHT SUGGEST LONG TRACK
TORNADOES AREA NOT LIKELY, BUT BRIEF TORNADOES THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO. ISOLATED, DISCREET STORMS SHOULD BEGIN THE EVENT ALONG THE
DRYLINE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL; EASILY IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH
RANGE, AND POTENTIALLY EVEN HIGHER. THE LATEST 4 KM NAM CONVECTIVE
SCHEME SUGGESTED THE MORE DISCREET STORMS MORPHING INTO CLUSTER OR
SMALL LINES IN CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE EVENING, SUGGESTING POSSIBILITY
FOR NOT ONLY SEVERE OUTFLOW, BUT HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BECOME STACKED SOMEWHERE NEAR KANSAS CITY BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, LEAVING WESTERN KANSAS IN A DEEP
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH LIGHT WEST SURFACE WINDS. NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS SHOULD PROMOTE CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS
A SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. DESPITE
A COLD FRONT CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DIFULENT FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT IMPROVING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
ROUGHLY A GARDEN CITY TO LARNED LINE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY IF THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW REMAINS UNCHANGED. CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY COULD EASILY RESULT IN
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB MUCH HIGHER THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FROM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
CROSS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER LATE MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS COOLER AIR RETURNS TO
WESTERN KANSAS. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS MID WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THE
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN
BEGIN LATE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A MOIST UPSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE 06Z NAM AND THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
THE IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF MVFR FOG WILL ERODE BETWEEN 13Z
AND 16Z AT GCK AND DDC. HYS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE STATUS AND
PATCHY FOG UNTIL AROUND 17Z FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FROM DDC NORTH AND EAST AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AT DDC AND HYS WILL INSERT
A PREVAILING PERIOD OF VCTS IN THIS LOCATION. TONIGHT SKIES WILL
CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS
MOVES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  50  79  48 /  50  10  10  10
GCK  77  48  78  48 /  40  10  10  10
EHA  76  48  79  47 /  30  10  10  10
LBL  80  49  81  48 /  30  10  10  10
HYS  73  51  73  46 /  60  50  10  20
P28  82  53  81  52 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT



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