Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 182318
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
618 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

ABBREVIATED SHORT TERM DUE TO CONVECTION ALREADY IN PROGRESS. THE GENERAL
STORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER.
THINK THE MOST LIKEST PLACE (IN ADDITION TO WHAT IS OCCURRING NOW),
IS ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE. THIS EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM TREGO COUNTY,
JUST EAST OF DODGE CITY, AND DOWN TO EAST CENTRAL CLARK COUNTY. INSTABILITY
AND BULK SHEAR ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE EVENT AND
THEN STORM TYPE EVOLVING INTO A LINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY
MID EVENING. INITIALLY, IT WILL BE A LARGE HAIL EVENT WITH THE LHP FORECAST
HAIL SIZE OF AROUND 2". THIS SHOULD BE THE MAX SIZE. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
BACK WITH HEIGHT WITH TIME, SO THINK BENEFICIAL COMPETITION WILL INCREASE
AS TIME GOES FORWARD...HENCE, HAIL SIZE GROWTH POTENTIAL WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MITIGATED. FOR A TORNADO CONCERN, LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ON THE WEAK SIDE.
THERE IS A SLIGHT WINDOW ACROSS BARBER, COMANCHE, AND PRATT COUNTIES,
WHERE THIS IMPROVES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, THINK ACTIVITY WON`T BE
AS DISCRETE BY THAT TIME. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD THEN EVOLVE INTO A CONVECTIVE
WIND OUTFLOW CONCERN. BOTTOM LINE, THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS JUST NOT
THAT CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADOES, EXCEPT IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND ONLY FOR A SMALL WINDOW. OTHERWISE, SEVERE
ACTIVITY WILL BE OUT OF THE REGION BY 03Z OR SO. A DEFORMATION BAND
IS FORECAST BEHIND THE MID TO LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PERTURBATION AND THINK
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS WAKE. THE MESOSCALE MODELS
SHOW DECENT QPF WITH THIS ACTIVITY, SO OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES MIGHT SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TRANSITIONING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK SETTING UP GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ASHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
ALONG WITH A WEAKER FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER AIR PRESENT IN THE
LOWER/MID LEVELS, PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN ABSENT ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF H5
VORT MAXIMA BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE COLORADO ROCKIES SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. HELPING SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
KANSAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, BRINGING ABOUT A
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS UP INTO THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BECAUSE OF DRIER AIR
REMAINING IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS, ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY
TO BE ISOLATED AND HIGH BASED. PRECIP CHANCES RETURN IN EARNEST
MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING ASHORE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY IN THE WEEK MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.

COOLER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE TO BE EXPECTED MONDAY IN
WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
MID SINGLE DIGITS(C) ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WITH THE
HELP OF A NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW, HIGHS MAY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 60S(F) MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 60S(F) TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP TO THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. THE GENERAL WARMING TREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE GENERAL FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TONIGHT AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES
FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. WINDS
JUST BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
DEVELOP. EVENING CONVECTION EAST OF DDC AND HYS IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. AS THE WINDS VEER MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
TOWARDS 12Z SUNDAY THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO SATURATE. BASED
ON THE HRRR AND RAP ALONG WITH THE BUFR SOUNDINGS SOME MVFR OR IFR
STATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY AND
BY 18Z SUNDAY WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 25 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY AT
ALL THREE TAF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  59  36  61 /  50  70  10  10
GCK  43  56  34  60 /  50  70  10  10
EHA  41  57  36  61 /  30  30  10  20
LBL  43  58  37  61 /  30  40  10  10
HYS  49  58  34  61 /  70  70   0  10
P28  51  67  38  63 /  70  70   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURGERT



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