Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 021710
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1210 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

AT 12Z SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM WEST TEXAS
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. A 500MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA. ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES A ZONAL FLOW WAS
PRESENT FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A 700MB
TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT 12Z SATURDAY WITH A
+4C TO +8C TEMPERATURE GRADIENT STRETCHING FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE EXTENDED
FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING. 850MB TEMPERATURES
AT 12Z VARIED FROM +15C AT NORTH PLATTE TO +17C AT AMARILLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WARM AND WINDY DAY IS IN STORE TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND. ON THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE, A FAIRLY FLAT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID-UPPER
TROPOSPHERE, WITH THE CROSS-MOUNTAIN MOMENTUM LEADING TO A FURTHER
DEEPENING OF THE LEESIDE TROUGH. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LEE TROUGH
AND A GULF COAST HIGH WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY,
PARTICULARLY WEST OF A LIBERAL TO GARDEN TO WAKEENEY LINE. WEST OF
THERE WILL NOT BE AS WINDY CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH AXIS. LATE
AFTERNOON 850MB TEMPS OF +25C WEST TO +18C EAST WILL LEAD TO HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S, WITH A FEW 85 TO 87F READINGS LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LEESIDE TROUGH
CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO, HOWEVER THIS CONVECTION
WILL BE OCCURRING IN A RATHER DRY AIRMASS. THIS WILL SUPPORT A LOT
OF OUTFLOW DOMINATION. SOME EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS COULD REACH HAMILTON COUNTY BY EARLY EVENING, HOWEVER CLOUD-
BEARING STEERING FLOW WILL BE MEAGER, SO ANY EASTWARD PROGRESSION
WILL BE LIMITED, AND BY THE TIME ANY MEANINGFUL CONVECTION ENTERS
WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS, IT WILL BE MID TO LATE EVENING AND CONVECTION
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE, MUCH LIKE WHAT WE SAW LATE LAST NIGHT ACROSS
THE SAME GENERAL AREA. WILL BE GOING WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WAY OUT WEST FOR THIS FORECAST SCENARIO.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SUNDAY BUT THEN BE PUSHED TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE THEN WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND CURLS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY TUESDAY. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS WE START THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES DOWN INTO NORTHERN
KANSAS. WINDS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH WITH
WINDS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY FROM MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA WITH AMPLE MID
TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT UP FROM THE GULF.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO BE HIGH DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS
LIFT INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY THEN IS PUSHED
BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
THEN TREKS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY WITH A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS LOW IS
PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THEN EASTWARD INTO THE
ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY SHIFTING EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE A LULL IN THE ACTION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK TO
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW PLACES ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER
POSSIBLY REACHING 90 DEGREES. HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
DECREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AFTER 03Z SUNDAY. CLOUD
COVER WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE EARLY TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
CLOUD BASES AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE AT OR
ABOVE 9000FT AGL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  55  88  58 /  10  10  20  20
GCK  87  53  88  55 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  85  52  88  54 /   0  10  20  20
LBL  86  55  90  57 /  10  10  20  20
HYS  85  56  87  58 /  10  20  20  30
P28  84  57  86  60 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURGERT


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