Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 260844
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
344 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE KEY TO CHANCES OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY. AT THIS TIME
THE DEPTH OF THIS MOIST LAYER WILL BE JUST BELOW 3000FT AGL BASED
ON THE NAM AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE DEPTH OF THIS MOIST LAYER
WILL BE SLIGHTLY DEEPER WEST OF HIGHWAY 283 THAN EAST SO GIVEN
THIS WILL FAVOR KEEPING A MENTION OF DRIZZLE GOING NEAR AND WEST
OF DODGE CITY TODAY. IN ADDITION 700MB TO 500MB LAPSE RATES ARE
FORECAST TO BE GREATER THAN 8C/KM AS A WEAK 400MB POTENTIAL
VORTICITY ANOMALY CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS
MAY BRIEFLY ENHANCE LIFT ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAINSHOWERS DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM
MUCH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER SO HAVE
KEPT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND TO AROUND 10 DEGREES OR LESS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

AFTER 00Z MONDAY ANOTHER, STRONGER, UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND APPROACH SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
GIVEN SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND IMPROVING LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
NEXT UPPER WAVE EARLY TONIGHT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION TO OCCUR, MAINLY IN SOUTHERN KANSAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER. CURRENTLY AM CONCERNED ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE 700MB TO
500MB DEFORMATION ZONE AND THE SLIGHTLY TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS WEST TEXAS. GIVEN THIS TREND ALONG WITH WHERE THE BETTER
MOISTURE, INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE OVERNIGHT WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FURTHER
SOUTH THE HIGHEST FOR OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE NAM AND THE ECMWF ARE THE SOLUTIONS WITH THE SHARPEST CUTOFF OF
PLACEMENT OF THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF COLD CONVEYOR BELT
PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES FOR
MONDAY. BY COMPARISON, THE GFS IS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION.
HOWEVER IN EITHER CASE, THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SUGGEST A WEDGE
OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS,
SUGGESTING LOWERED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES, FROM AROUND SCOTT CITY TO HAYS.  AS SUCH WE`VE USED A
MODEL BLEND TOWARD THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS WHICH IS WARMER ACROSS OUR
FURTHEST NORTHEAST COUNTIES, AND CONTINUED TO TREND LOWER THE POPS
ACROSS THOSE AREAS. CAPE IS BASICALLY NONEXISTENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY, LEAVING DEFORMATION AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE THE MAIN MECHANISMS FOR FORCING, PRODUCING RAIN, AND COOL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

BEYOND THE MONDAY TIMEFRAME, THE PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY BENIGN WITH
A MEAN WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM TO
THE 80S BY THE THURSDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AS A SOUTHWEST SURFACE
FLOW DEVELOPS. THE POLAR WESTERLIES SETUP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH A STRONG WAVE MODELED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF TO DIVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AROUND LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT COULD BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION, WHICH THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER THE BLEND SOLUTION DERTERMINES
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION TO BE SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS EARLY TONIGHT SHOWING LIFR
CEILINGS SPREADING SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. BASED ON
LOWERING CEILINGS FROM THE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS, 00Z NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS, ALONG WITH THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR THE CEILINGS WILL
FALL INTO THE LIFR CATEGORY BY 06Z SUNDAY AND THEN REMAIN BELOW
500FT AGL THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z. CEILINGS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
IMPROVE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. VISIBILITIES
SHOULD STAY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BASED ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
GIVEN THAT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  42  48  40 /  10  60  60  30
GCK  54  43  47  38 /  20  50  60  20
EHA  56  41  46  38 /  30  90  80  30
LBL  58  45  46  40 /  40  80  80  40
HYS  55  41  59  40 /  10  20  30  20
P28  65  48  50  43 /  10  70  70  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT


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