Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 312302
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
602 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TONIGHT:

LEE HIGH PLAINS TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. BY MORNING, 50+ DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS, OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS
WILL BE QUITE MILD. WITH LOW 50S FOR SCOTT CITY TO MID 50S BY MEDICINE
LODGE. INCREASING STRATUS AND PERHAPS AREAS OF FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS TOO.

TOMORROW:

OUR FIRST SHOT AT SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE YEAR. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
OUT. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THIS OUTLOOK AREA THOUGH.
BY NOON, THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WESTWARD WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS MAKE SOME SENSE, SINCE UPPER FLOW IS
MORE SSW RATHER THAN SW OR WSW. FROM A BLEND OF THE 4 KM NAM, WRF-ARW,
WRF-NMM, CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE IN THE 4-6 PM TIME FRAME, ROUGHLY ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. THE NAM MIXES DEWPOINTS OUT BETWEEN 21Z AND
00Z, AND THIS COULD HAVE IMPACTS TO HOW MUCH CAPE WE ARE DEALING WITH.
BULK SHEAR IS ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR SUPERCELLS. FOR TOMORROW, WE
WILL BE DEALING WITH HIGH BASED SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED ISOLATED STORMS.
INSTEAD OF USING MUCAPE, USING MLCAPE WITH THE LARGE HAIL PARAMETER
ALGORITHM COMES UP WITH A VALUE OF 3. THIS SUGGESTS THAT HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AGAIN, THINK CAPE COULD
TREND DOWNWARD IF THE DEWPOINTS DO, IN FACT, MIX OUT. THE OTHER CONCERN
IS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND
A RELATED MIXED PROFILE DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS WITH
50-60 MPH OUTFLOWS. FORECAST REFLECTIVITY ALSO SUGGESTS AN EVOLUTION
TO A SMALL QLCS, SO THIS ALSO GIVES SOME CREDENCE TO A SEVERE WIND
THREAT. THERE IS NO TORNADO THREAT TOMORROW. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE EVENING, IF NOT SOONER.
HIGHS WILL BE HOT AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FOR THURSDAY, A COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND A COLD FRONT
AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

FOR FRIDAY, A STRONG UPPER JET OF 150KT COMES IN WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW TO MIX IN ALSO MAINLY
NORTH OF DODGE CITY. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY NOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA. LOWS ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S FROM
JOHNSON CITY TO GARDEN CITY AND WAKEENEY, AND FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

FOR THE PERIOD OF SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE FORECAST LOOKS
DRY WITH A WARMING TREND AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE
PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR 70, UPPER 70S ON
SUNDAY, AROUND 80 ON MONDAY, AND MID 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL
WARMING FROM THE MID 30S ON SATURDAY MORNING TO THE 40S INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LEE SIDE
TROUGH STRENGTHENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AFTER COORDINATION WITH GLD AND PUB...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR TOMORROW. WINDS ARE MUCH IN QUESTION. RH`S SHOULD EASILY REACH CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  89  46  68 /   0  40  50  10
GCK  51  89  42  67 /   0  40  40  10
EHA  51  86  43  68 /   0  20  10  10
LBL  52  89  45  69 /   0  30  10  10
HYS  53  86  44  67 /   0  40  50  10
P28  55  87  52  70 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



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