Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 020442
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1142 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE NAM AND GFS SHOW AN H5 VORT MAXIMA
EJECTING OFF THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES INTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LARGE SCALE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH LESS THAN ROBUST, A STRONG ENOUGH FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE KICKS OUT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, THE NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WILL LIFT BACK NORTH THIS EVENING AS A
WARM FRONT. AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTH INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT, LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY BACK DOWN INTO THE
50S(F). ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS FURTHER NORTHWARD ALLOWING WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO RE-ENGAGE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WIDESPREAD 80S(F)
ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

PERIODIC BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUPY THE LONG TERM
DOMAIN WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. FIRST CHANCE WILL COME SUNDAY EVENING
WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE AND 25-35 KT OF
SHEAR. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96 IN ASSOCIATION
WITH CLOSER FRONTAL PROXIMITY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S. FOR MONDAY, POPS WILL INCREASE AREA WIDE AS SIGNIFICANT
WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE DOWNSTREAM OF A SYNOPTIC TROUGH. PWATS
WILL APPROACH ONE INCH WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. WIDESPREAD
SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER AROUND. A WET PATTERN CONTINUES
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUE LIFT, HIGH PWATS, AND ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL SEE SOME DRYING IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT FOR
THURSDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT POPS THEN. ANOTHER BOUT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CLOSE OUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SLIGHT TO CHANCE PROBABILITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

A LEESIDE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN SATURDAY LEADING TO STRONG
SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE DDC, GCK, HYS TERMINALS. LATE MORNING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WINDS WILL RANGE 18 TO 24 KNOTS SUSTAINED
WITH GUSTS IN THE LOWER 30S KNOTS. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF
11 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WEST OF THE TERMINALS, INCLUDING GCK, SO THE TAF WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  85  56  88 /  20  10  10  20
GCK  54  85  54  88 /  20  10  10  30
EHA  52  85  55  87 /  20  10  20  20
LBL  53  87  57  88 /  20  10  10  20
HYS  55  85  57  86 /  20  10  10  40
P28  56  85  58  85 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...UMSCHEID


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