Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 231113
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
613 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SPLIT UPPER SYNOPTIC FLOW LEFT WESTERN KANSAS UNDER A WEAK FLOW
ALOFT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TO THE SOUTH, SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS DECAYING
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING CONTRIBUTED TO THE EXPANSION
OF STRATUS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE NAM CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE STRATUS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
MORNING LEADING TO CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 KFT DURING THE DAY.
INTENSE LATE APRIL INSOLATION SHOULD AID BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING,
EFFECTIVELY ERODING THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT TO
HOW FAR EAST THE STRATUS SCATTERS IS UNCERTAIN. DRY MID LEVELS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A DRIZZLE SETUP BETWWEEN ROUGHLY HIGHWAYS 83 AND 283
LATE THIS MORNING AND SPREADING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER
TERRAIN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS EXPLICITLY DEVELOPED BY THE 4 KM
NAM ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY, AND DRIVEN EAST IN
THE HIGH (30-40 KNOT) SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BY THE EVENING, BUT TO A
MUCH MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IN KS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A 700 MB TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE REGION, SETTING UP AN ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE FOR THE OVERNIGHT,
WHICH MAY BE FAIRLY LIMITED GIVEN THE DRY MID LEVELS.

MOS/BLENDS FORECASTS UPPER 50S WITH MODELS SHOWING CLOSER TO 70 IN
THE AREA OF MORE ABUNDANT SUN TODAY. UNCERTAINTY WILL THEN INCREASE
INTO TONIGHT AS THE EFFECTS  OF ANY POTENTAIL CONVECTION COULD
IMPACT TEMPERATURES, AREAL EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION AND LEFTOVER RAIN
COOLED STRATUS OR FOG.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN UNCERTAINTY ON FRIDAY WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT
WILL BE BY LATE DAY AND WHERE THE MOISTURE RETURN AND LOW LEVEL
FORCING BE LOCATED FRIDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME THE NAM AND NMM
SUGGESTS THAT BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WILL TO BE LOCATED EAST OF
HIGHWAY 283 WHILE THE GFS, AND ARW WERE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVED
THE FRONT, DRYLINE, MOISTURE, AND BETTER INSTABILITY FURTHER EAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHICH SEEMS TO BE A NICE BLEND BETWEEN THE
TWO EXTREMES LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON A WEST WIND WILL DEVELOP BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AND DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
30S. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASE FIRE DANGER LEVELS, HOWEVER
GIVEN THE RECENT GREEN UP BASED ON THE FUEL STATUS PAGE CONDITIONS
DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FIRE WATCH AT THIS TIME.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW SOME COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY LATE
DAY. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY 8-10 DEGREE COOLER. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 70S ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR TO
THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS NORTH OF THIS FRONT LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS
AS IT CROSSES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. CLOUDS WILL INITIALLY BE ON
THE INCREASE FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LATE
THIS WEEKEND GIVEN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY UP SLOPE FLOW, MOISTURE
NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND IMPROVING ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF THIS DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

CLOUDY SKIES, COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FROM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEW MEXICO, ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO OKLAHOMA EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE LATEST TRACK OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THE AREA MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 156.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

06Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WERE SIMILAR TO THE 00Z MODEL RUNS WITH
MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT INCREASING IN THE 900MB TO 750MB LEVEL
TODAY. BASED ON THE 06Z NAM BUFR SOUNDING ALONG WITH THE LATEST
HRRR AND RAP MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO IFR CATEGORY
AT DDC AND GCK BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z AS PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. AT
HYS CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
BETWEEN 21Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. AFTER 00Z FRIDAY THE CHANCE
FOR FOG WILL INCREASE AND STATUS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AS THE
SURFACE TO 900MB LEVEL SATURATES AND A SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE AT
10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  55  79  50 /  20  40  20  20
GCK  63  51  77  47 /  20  60  20  20
EHA  72  49  79  47 /  20  40  10  10
LBL  66  54  81  49 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  60  51  73  49 /  10  60  40  50
P28  61  54  81  52 /  10  50  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT


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