Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 040803
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
303 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS, AND A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
SOUTH OF THIS COLD FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE
PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA. AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES
SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE TODAY/EARLY THIS EVENING THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG EACH OF THESE BOUNDARIES
BASED ON 00Z MONDAY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS NEAR AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH INDICATES AN
INVERTED V TYPE OF SOUNDINGS WITH CLOUD BASES NEAR THE 700MB
LEVEL. SBCAPE LATE DAY RANGED FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. GIVEN
IMPROVING 0-1KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
LATE DAY INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WEST OF HIGHWAY 283 LATE AFTERNOON. FURTHER NORTH NEAR
THE I-70 CORRIDOR NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS AROUND HAYS SUGGESTING WEAK
CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL EARLY EVENING. 0-6KM SHEAR IS
FORECAST THIS EVENING TO RANGE FROM 20 TO NEAR 30 KNOTS. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS OF 50 TO NEAR 60 MPH WILL BE A HAZARD ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN KANSAS LATE DAY AND EARLY TONIGHT GIVEN THE INVERTED V
SOUNDINGS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

ON MONDAY A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH LATE DAY AS
AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL STILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.
THESE TWO BOUNDARIES WILL BE WHERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EJECTS OUT FROM THE BASED ON THE UPPER LOW AND
APPROACHES SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. AT
THIS TIME GIVEN THE BASED ON THE 900 TO 850MB TEMPERATURE TREND
FROM THE NAM AND GFS FROM 00Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY WILL FAVOR A
10 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. SLIGHTLY LESS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS YIELDED
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
HIGHER DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY AS
CAPES INCREASE TO 2000 J/KG OR GREATER BY LATE DAY. BASED ON
TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON MONDAY ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE WILL BEGIN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z, AND THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY WILL BE NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 96 GIVEN THE LOCATION OF INCREASING 0-1KM MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH THE THE 00Z TUESDAY INSTABILITY AND 0-6KM
SHEAR AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR. HAIL UP TO GOLF BALLS AND STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD LATE MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

AS AN UPPER LEVEL OPEN WAVE MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
THEN MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BEFORE CURLING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. TOWARDS THE SURFACE, A LARGE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS IT PUSHES UP
MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCATED SOMEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGHOUT THIS TIME FRAME LEADING TO SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR PRECIPITATION, THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY AS THE
FIRST UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH COLORADO. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THEN SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM PUSHES SHORTWAVES AROUND ITS
PERIPHERY AND TOWARDS WESTERN KANSAS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON HOW WARM WE GET. AS
FOR THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ABOVE WESTERN KANSAS, SKIES LOOK TO BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING ACROSS
FAR WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE KS/CO BORDER TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS IN
THE 80S ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DROPPING
INTO THE 70S THIS WEEKEND. LOWS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE KS/CO
BORDER TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS. IN VICINITY OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION, WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY CHAOTIC, BUT WITH SOME WESTERLY COMPONENT AND GUSTY. DURING
THE DAY MONDAY, THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WITH
WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH AT DDC. AT GCK AND HYS, WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY.
ADDITIONAL LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY AFFECTING MAINLY GCK AND HYS TERMINALS FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST MID EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  57  69  57 /  50  80  70  70
GCK  78  55  67  55 /  70  90  90  60
EHA  73  53  69  51 /  70  80  90  50
LBL  79  56  69  56 /  60  90  90  60
HYS  79  57  71  58 /  60  80  60  70
P28  85  59  75  60 /  10  30  80  90

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...UMSCHEID


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