Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 300856
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
356 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM, AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE ACROSS KANSAS OVERNIGHT,
WITH DRIEST AIR INDICATED BY DEW POINTS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 F IN THE
REGION FOCUSED UNDER THE HIGH IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE ONLY CLOUDS IN THE  REGION WERE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SPLIT UPPER FLOW TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE DODGE CITY CWA,
AND RELEGATED TO THIN HIGH CIRRUS.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ANOTHER DRY SHORT TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
ARE THE SURFACE  WINDS, TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING, THE DRIEST AIR WILL BECOME
DISPLACED BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINT AIR ON THE RETURN FLOW
SIDE OF THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE FAR WEST AND
LIKELY IN THE LOW 80S. THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO THE
15 TO 20 MPH RANGE , BUT WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEST OF A HAYS TO
DODGE AND LIBERAL LINE BY AFTERNOON AS A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH/VERY
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS NW KS.

MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT SKIES ARE EXPECTED, A GOOD SETUP FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE HIGHER
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE MORE MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS THAN THE HIGHER ELEVATION WESTERN PLAINS. LOWS COULD VARY BY
10 DEGREES OR MORE FROM SYRACUSE TO MEDICINE LODGE.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OUT AND OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO WESTERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THIS FEATURE TREKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE CWA. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHING DOWN COOLER AIR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS
THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG
IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT THEN
THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THIS
FRONT, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, AS
OF NOW, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TREK NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST
KANSAS ONLY EXPERIENCING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN, WEST CENTRAL, AND CENTRAL
KANSAS. ANOTHER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER
80S WITH LOWER TO MID 80S ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE
TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S. LOWER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, AROUND 60
DEGREES FRIDAY, THEN BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION OVERNIGHT LENDING TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. BY MID MORNING MONDAY, THE GRADIENT SHOULD
BE INCREASING ENOUGH FOR A MARKED INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING THORUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MODELS INDICATE A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH SETTING UP FROM NEAR HAYS TO NEAR GARDEN CITY.
OTHERWISE VFR SKY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE DRIVEN TO BELOW 15
PERCENT MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS AFTERNOON JUST AS THE WIND
SPEED IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE TO
AROUND THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. AS A RESULT ALTHOUGH FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON , CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW FOR
RED FLAG CRITERIA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  45  82  51 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  80  41  82  48 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  80  45  82  48 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  80  46  83  49 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  79  42  79  50 /   0   0  10  10
P28  77  47  84  53 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUSSELL
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL



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