Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 142006
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
306 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA TODAY AND FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH AN EXTREMELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND
A LACK OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE, DRIER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH, THERE IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ITSELF THAT A
FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN A BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...GENERALLY EAST OF A HAYS TO COLDWATER
LINE. AT THE VERY LEAST, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS TODAY.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A SURFACE HIGH IN
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS KICKS OFF TO THE EAST, SETTING UP A
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL
DO VERY LITTLE TO DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH H85
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM A LITTLE UNDER 10C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
TO NEAR 15C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. FACTORING IN THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY, HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED ONLY
UP INTO THE 60S(F) AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 70F POSSIBLE OUT
BY THE COLORADO BORDER. AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTH INTO
CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS, LOOK FOR LOWS ONLY DOWN INTO THE
40S(F) TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER OF INTEREST/IMPACT WILL BE IN THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, BEGINNING WITH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE NAM/AND WRF CORES AS WELL AS THE GFS/EC TO A CERTAIN
EXTENT ARE IN AGREEMENT OF LATE DAY CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF A
SURFACE TROUGH/DIFFUSE DRYLINE REGION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TO
NORTHWEST KANSAS, IN A REGION OF MODERATE CAPE AND SUPERCELL
FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ANY DISCREET STORMS OR CLUSTERS THAT
DEVELOP ARE FAVORED TO SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY
THE MID EVENING HOURS. THE SET UP WOULD FAVOR HAIL TO AROUND GOLF
BALLS WITH LHP VALUES AROUND 4. FARTHER, SOUTH, A FEW STORMS COULD
FORM AS WELL, IN A SEEMINGLY LESS FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH
THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER JET NOSE. THURSDAY BRINGS MORE
UNCERTAINTY IN THAT CURRENTLY THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN FAVOR OF
MUCH HIGHER DEW POINTS THAN THE MOS, AND MAY BE OVERDOING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN. NEVERTHELESS, INCREASING FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE ONGOING INTO
LATE DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, PROMOTING SHOWERS AND WEAK
STORMS IN AN ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE/UPPER DIFFLUENCE REGION.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE FAVORED TIMEFRAME
FOR THE UPPER LOW TO BECOME CLOSED OFF ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL PRESENT MORE OF A COLD CORE RAIN/DEFORMATION ZONE
PRECIP TYPE OF EVENT FOR MUCH OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND, A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN SHOULD DEVELOP RENDERING
DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS. ANOTHER WAVE IS NOTED
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK FOR THE NEXT CHANCE OR SHOWERS OR STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE LOW PROBABILITY OF
LIFR/IFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITY FORMING EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS MARGINAL MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ON
SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE NAM12/NMMB WRF CORE IS QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG FORMATION, HOWEVER DEWPOINTS WILL ONLY BE IN
THE LOWER 40S AND WITH WINDS LIKELY STAYING UP IN THE 10 TO 15
KNOT RANGE MOST OF THE NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT DROP
LOW ENOUGH TO PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. WE WILL BE KEEPING
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS OUT OF THE TAFS, BUT GCK TERMINAL WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED, FOR IF ANY OF THE THREE TERMINALS WOULD BE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO IFR/LIFR DEVELOPMENT, IT WOULD BE FARTHER WEST AT
GCK. THE WRF-ARW DOES NOT SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS
AND/OR FOG, AND THIS MODEL HAS GENERALLY PERFORMED BETTER WITH
RESPECT TO FOG.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  41  71  48  68 /  10  10  50  50
GCK  42  74  45  64 /  10  20  40  50
EHA  43  76  42  64 /  10  20  30  40
LBL  42  78  46  68 /  10  20  40  40
HYS  39  69  48  66 /  10  10  50  50
P28  42  71  52  71 /  10  10  50  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



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