Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 150833
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
333 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN KANSAS TODAY. MEANWHILE, THE STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT BEGINS
TO DROP MORE SOUTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING IN A MORE DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THROUGHOUT THE DAY RESULTING
IN A SHARPENING ATTENDANT DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE SURFACE LOW IS PROJECTED TO BEGIN EDGING
SLOWLY EAST INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED TO THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY DRYSLOT SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WHILE MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE LIFTS NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.
AND ALTHOUGH LESS THAN ROBUST, AN UPPER LEVEL JET CORE DOWNSTREAM OF
THE TROUGH AXIS OUT WEST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND CAPPING WEAKENS.

NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SLOWLY INCREASING INSTABILITY
WITH MUCAPE VALUES CLIMBING IN EXCESS OF 1,000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE IN LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES, ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. AND WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE
INITIALLY, STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED AND MORE HIGH
BASED LEADING TO MORE OF A HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS AND POINTS NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH LIMITED CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE. STORMS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF A RETREATING DRYLINE.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TODAY AS A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE NAM/GFS
SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 12C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO A
LITTLE ABOVE 20C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEHIND THE DRYLINE.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH UP INTO THE 70S(F) THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE LOWER TO MID 80S(F) IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. FOR TONIGHT, AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS RAISING SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 40S(F) AND LOWER
50S(F), LOOK FOR LOWS ONLY DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S(F) IN WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID 50S(F) IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

TRIED TO PUT A LITTLE BIT OF DIURNAL VARIABILITY IN THE POPS DURING
THURSDAY MORNING HOURS AS CONVECTION SEEMS UNLIKELY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REDEVELOP BY EVENING WITH THE BETTER CHANCE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
283. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE LOW END THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AS CAPE AND SHEAR IS STILL PRESENT, ALTHOUGH ON THE LOW END SIDE.
MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE DECENT RAINFALL, PARTICULARLY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS. OFF
AND ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. INSTABILITY
DOES WANE OVER THE WEEKEND, SO IT MIGHT BE MORE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION
RATHER THAN CONVECTIVE. IT`S HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT THUNDER. IT`S
SPRING AND THE PLAINS... THERE IS ALSO STILL A DECENT COLD POOL ALOFT.
THE EC IS SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN THE GFS WITH TOTAL PRECIPITATION. WPC
HAS RAMPED UP QPF AMOUNTS SINCE LAST NIGHT, SO I WAS A LITTLE BIT ON
THE LIBERAL SIDE WITH 6 HOURLY QPF GRIDS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC LIFT, IT WON`T TAKE MUCH
TO PRODUCE RAIN. SPEAK OF PRECIP, LEFT SUPERBLEND POPS ALONE HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS KANSAS ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. ANY
RAIN WE CAN GET WILL BE WELCOMED AS OUR LONG TERM DROUGHT CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, LIFTING NORTH-
NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. IFR
CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS KGCK AND KDDC TOWARD
DAYBREAK. AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP AS WELL, ESPECIALLY WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE LINGERING FROM RECENT RAIN FALL, BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR VSBYS TO KGCK AND KDDC. OTHERWISE,
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15KT WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH SUNRISE AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO. THE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE 15 TO 25KT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73  48  69  50 /  20  40  60  70
GCK  75  45  66  48 /  20  40  50  70
EHA  80  42  65  44 /  20  30  50  70
LBL  77  46  69  48 /  20  40  50  70
HYS  70  48  67  50 /  20  40  70  70
P28  72  52  72  54 /  10  40  70  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...JJOHNSON


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