Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 061900
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
200 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEBRASKA
TONIGHT. A DRYLINE WILL FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND RUN FROM NEAR
WAKEENEY TO DODGE CITY AND COLDWATER AND EAST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLING INTO THE
EVENING. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND CAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR
ROTATING SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE HIGHEST CAPE WILL
RUN FROM ST. JOHN TO MEDICINE LODGE WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
TORNADOES. A MITIGATING FACTOR FOR TORNADOES ARE THE LACK OF STRONG
UPPER LEVEL WINDS. HOWEVER WITH SUCH STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR A
FEW TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEY MAY NOT LAST VERY LONG AS
THE STORM COLLAPSES ON ITSELF DUE TO THE WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
WINDS. THE SEVERE STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER 7 TO 8
PM. OTHER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH
OF DODGE CITY TONIGHT AS A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
KANSAS LATE. LOW TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 60 EAST OF DODGE CITY AND
LOW TO MID 50S TO THE WEST.

FOR THURSDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK INTO SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS AS LOW PRESSURE REFORMS IN COLORADO. GOOD MOISTURE WILL
RETURN ALSO. THE SHEAR PROFILE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS TODAY,
HOWEVER WITH CAPES FORECAST AROUND 2000 J/KG, SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
BEST AREAS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT FROM JUST SOUTH
OF HAYS TO GARDEN CITY AND SOUTH TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THEN EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL
SPIN AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
WESTERN KANSAS WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS THEN RETROGRADE
BACK WEST IN THE EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYLINE AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE MAIN FOCAL POINT WHERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FROM IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MODERATELY
UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS WITH AMPLE SHEAR IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ERGO, ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE CWA SATURDAY
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. ONCE AGAIN, A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES BEING THE
MAIN CONCERN. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG
WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH A DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS AT THE SURFACE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS THURSDAY ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 80
DEGREES THEN RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 70 DEGREES SATURDAY WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE
FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE COLD FRONT ISN`T
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER
TO UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS MONDAY LOOK TO
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S THEN REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S TUESDAY.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN SOUTH
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT KHYS BETWEEN 20Z AND
01Z AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE AND MOVE EAST. IFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KDDC AFTER 08Z AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EDGES WESTWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  59  80  58  75 /  20  40  60  50
GCK  53  79  55  70 /  20  30  40  40
EHA  51  79  52  73 /  10  30  30  30
LBL  54  81  57  76 /  10  40  50  40
HYS  58  78  54  69 /  50  40  70  50
P28  64  80  61  80 /  40  40  70  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...FINCH


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